A record number of congressional races are being classified as toss-ups by both parties ahead of next month’s midterm elections.
Across the country, 60 seats have appeared on both the Democratic and Republican target lists as the parties prepare for the midterms.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified more than 90 districts on its battlefield map, including 46 “Red to Blue” targets and 26 vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Republicans are defending 17 vulnerable incumbents while pursuing 27 additional seats.
The contest has expanded to include even more districts that are priorities for both parties or for groups aligned with Trump, despite those seats having favored Trump by an average of eight points in 2024.
Democrats must gain at least three House seats to reclaim the lower chamber. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage that includes two independents who caucus with Democrats, they need to pick up four seats.
However, the flow of money into House contests suggests Democrats may be aiming for more than simply taking back the chamber—they could be positioning themselves to build a substantial majority.
Republicans hold a narrow 218-214 House majority, but the battleground has widened sharply as President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings and voter frustration reshape the political environment.
A new Our News Outlet/You Gov poll found that nearly half of likely voters believe Trump is hurting his own party less than four weeks before the midterms.
Sixty seats nationwide are included on both the Democratic and Republican target lists ahead of the midterm elections
Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Washington Democrat, leaves the House chamber after a 2024 vote at the US Capitol. Republicans are targeting her seat this year
His approval rating has also slumped to just 32 percent, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The Cook Political Report listed 39 competitive races in February 2025, including 18 toss-ups. Its latest assessment has grown to 43 competitive districts, with 22 now categorized as toss-ups.
Campaign spending, however, indicates that the true battlefield extends well beyond that list.
An National Public Radio analysis of campaign targets, advertising reservations and spending by Trump-aligned super PACs found that more than 90 districts are drawing resources in the final weeks of the campaign.
Some of those races were expected to be close from the outset. Republican Representatives Mike Lawler of New York and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, along with Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, hold seats in districts where voters split their presidential and congressional choices in 2024.
Other contests were decided by extremely narrow margins. California Democrat Adam Gray won by fewer than 200 votes, while Iowa Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks secured victory by only 799 votes.
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Iowa Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks has won three elections by narrow margins and faces another difficult contest this November
New York Republican Mike Lawler is seeking reelection in a district won by Kamala Harris in 2024
But the political landscape in 2026 is markedly different from the one seen in 2024.
Trump’s unpopularity has reached record levels, while voters have voiced frustration over the war in Iran, high gas prices, tariffs and immigration enforcement.
Anti-incumbent sentiment has also helped fuel record congressional retirements and several primary defeats.
Redistricting has further scrambled the map, changing district lines for an estimated one in 10 registered voters. Republicans sought to create additional favorable seats in states including Texas and Florida, while Democrats countered in California.
Some GOP-drawn districts could now backfire. Polling indicates Trump is particularly unpopular in newly redrawn communities in South Florida and along the Texas-Mexico border.
Earlier this week, Democrats added six House seats Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to their target list less than a month out from the midterms.
The reddest of the six are New York’s 21st District and Tennessee’s redrawn 9th, both of which Trump won by 21 points. Blake Gendebien is running in the former and Justin Pearson in the latter.
Chris Jones is running in Arkansas’ 2nd, which Trump carried by 16, and Eliott Rodriguez in Florida’s 27th, which he won by 15.
Teresa Benitez-Thompson is contesting Nevada’s open 2nd, which Trump won by 14, while Dwayne Romero is running in Colorado’s 3rd, which he took by 10.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the candidates to its ‘Red to Blue’ program this past Sunday.
A look at advertising money underscores just how broad the fight has become.
Even deep-red territory is drawing cash. Millions have poured into Kentucky’s 6th District and Arkansas’ 2nd District, despite Trump winning both by 15 points.
AdImpact data shows nearly half a billion dollars in advertising reservations remain between now and Election Day, further evidence that neither party is taking the fight for the House for granted.
