Democrats enter the final week of the midterm campaign with a sizable advantage in the congressional ballot, according to a new poll. However, the survey also points to potential limits on their gains, particularly if key parts of the Democratic coalition fail to show up on Election Day.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey gives Democratic congressional candidates an eight-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. Respondents were asked which party’s candidate they would choose in their district if voting took place today.
Even with that advantage, Democratic enthusiasm remains uneven among several groups central to the party’s electoral strategy. At the same time, Republicans have begun to narrow the gap in how much attention voters are paying to the election.
The results also highlight lingering uncertainty among Democrats about whether their apparent lead will ultimately translate into victories.
Nearly all Democratic likely voters—98 percent—said they planned to support their party’s candidate. Yet only 81 percent thought that candidate would actually win, producing a 17-point difference between voter preference and expectations.
Republican voters showed more confidence in their candidates. The gap between those planning to vote Republican and those expecting a Republican victory was 10 points.
Together, the numbers reveal a notable partisan confidence divide as candidates make their final appeals before Election Day.
Democrats are seeking to turn President Donald Trump’s weak standing and voter frustration over the economy into a return to power in Congress.
Although 98 percent of Democratic likely voters intended to back their party’s candidate, just 81 percent expected that candidate to win—a 17-point confidence gap
Republican voters showed a smaller 10-point difference between their planned vote and their expectation of victory
Trump’s approval rating was 40 percent among likely voters, while 59 percent said they disapproved of his performance
Trump’s job approval remained underwater among likely voters, with 40 percent approving of his performance and 59 percent expressing disapproval.
His overall favorability numbers were weaker still: 37 percent viewed the president positively, compared with 59 percent who held an unfavorable opinion.
The poll also found that opposition to Trump was more influential than support for him. Forty-four percent said they would vote primarily against him, while 21 percent said their vote would be intended to support him.
Still, negative views of Trump alone may not be enough to deliver those voters to Democratic candidates.
Among likely voters younger than 45, only 42 percent described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about casting a ballot. That compared with 68 percent of MAGA voters.
Enthusiasm reached 53 percent among non-white voters and 56 percent among white women with college degrees—two groups that, like younger voters, largely disapproved of Trump’s performance.
Democrats nevertheless maintained the broader enthusiasm edge. Seventy-one percent of Democratic likely voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting, versus 61 percent of likely Republican voters.
However, the Democratic advantage has diminished sharply when it comes to how closely voters are following the campaign.
Only 42 percent of likely voters under 45 said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 68 percent of MAGA voters
Democrats still have an overall enthusiasm advantage, with 71 percent of Democratic likely voters saying they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61 percent of Republicans
Changes to congressional district maps have tilted the playing field toward Republicans, potentially limiting how many seats Democrats can pick up even if they perform strongly nationally
Last month, 42 percent of Democrats said they were following the election very closely, compared with just 34 percent of Republicans.
The latest poll put the figures at 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans.
The poll’s findings suggest that Democrats face another challenge beyond Trump’s unpopularity.
Changes to congressional district maps have tilted the playing field toward Republicans, potentially limiting how many seats Democrats can pick up even if they perform strongly nationally.
Historically, Democratic leads of this size on the congressional ballot have accompanied major gains.
The party had a seven-point advantage in 2018 and a 12-point lead in 2006, winning at least 30 House seats in both elections.
But the redistricting that followed the 2020 Census, along with a series of mid-decade map changes, has altered the landscape.
The economy remains a central concern for voters.
Thirty-eight percent said their personal finances had worsened over the past year, while a third said they had experienced financial hardship.
The survey also found that 55 percent of likely voters believed it was more important to elect candidates with new ideas who would bring change.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters on October 19 and 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points among registered voters and 3.8 points among likely voters.
