Republicans are entering the final stretch of the midterm campaign facing a difficult challenge to preserve their Senate majority when voters go to the polls Tuesday.
Polling throughout October has repeatedly shown Democratic candidates leading nationally and in several states expected to decide control of the chamber.
Even President Trump has questioned whether Republicans can generate enough turnout this fall, particularly because his name will not appear on the ballot.
“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote, and that’s the one thing I can’t tell,” Trump said recently, while encouraging Republicans to campaign as though he were personally seeking office.
Still, Republicans are dramatically outpacing Democrats in fundraising, both across the country and in several of the most competitive Senate contests.
The contrast suggests that control of Congress may ultimately be determined less by party strategists in Washington than by turnout in pivotal states including Maine, Michigan, Texas and Alaska.
North Carolina is expected to be the first Democratic pickup on election night. From there, scandals, fierce attacks and family controversies could shape the contests that determine the balance of power in 2027.
10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November
The US Senate
Republicans now control 53 Senate seats, meaning Democrats must gain at least four seats to take over the upper chamber in the next Congress. These 10 Senate races are expected to be central to that fight.
Maine Senate: Susan Collins (R) versus Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D)
Republican Senator Susan Collins is fighting to retain her seat in Maine, home to one of the nation’s oldest voting populations. Her original Democratic challenger, Graham Platner, withdrew after facing multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse, which he denies. Maine Democrats then nominated former state Senate President Troy Jackson, though his campaign has also been overshadowed by controversy, including reports that he fathered children with his second cousin. The Cook Political Report now lists the contest as a “toss-up,” after previously rating it “lean Republican.” A CNN/SSRS poll released during the final week of October gave Jackson a four-point advantage. He had the support of 49 percent of respondents, compared with 45 percent for Collins. Still, Collins has repeatedly outperformed unfavorable polling on Election Day.
Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (D) versus Mike Collins (R)
Jon Ossoff (D) and Mike Collins (R)
At 39, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is widely viewed as one of his party’s emerging national figures. He is considered a strong favorite against Republican Congressman Mike Collins, whose campaign has been hit by a series of personal and staffing controversies. Our News Outlet reported that Collins’ son-in-law had shared white supremacist material and that senior advisers had been referred to the House Ethics Committee over alleged misuse of campaign funds. The Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat” in late September. Ossoff has led in recent surveys, including an Echelon Insights poll conducted during the third week of October. That survey showed Ossoff ahead 55 percent to 40 percent.
New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas (D) versus John Sununu (R)
Chris Pappas (D) and John Sununu (R)
Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s decision not to seek a fourth term created an opening in New Hampshire, although Democrats remain favored to keep the seat. Republicans are hoping John Sununu can produce an upset. The former governor comes from one of the state’s best-known political families and has previously served in both the US House and Senate. He later moved into the private sector. Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte’s popularity could also help boost GOP turnout. The Cook Political Report briefly classified the contest as a “toss-up” before moving it back toward Democrats. A UMass Lowell poll conducted in the first half of October showed Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas leading Sununu by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (R) versus Sherrod Brown (D)
Jon Husted (R) and Sherrod Brown (D)
Republican Jon Husted is seeking election to the Ohio Senate seat he entered after JD Vance left the position to become vice president. Sherrod Brown, the 73-year-old Democrat who previously held the seat, is attempting a political comeback. Our News Outlet recently obtained video of Brown discussing a lack of diversity among congressional staff and referring to “black and brown” night cleaners. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up,” while polling in late September showed the candidates tied. Prediction-market users at Kalshi nevertheless favor Brown, 66 percent to 34 percent. Whoever wins will have to defend the seat again in 2028. An Echelon Insights poll from the third week of October also found the candidates deadlocked at 47 percent each.
Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) versus Josh Turek (D)
Ashley Hinson (R) and Josh Turek (D)
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is making her first statewide run after representing eastern Iowa in Congress since winning her seat in 2020. Her Democratic opponent, state lawmaker Josh Turek, survived a competitive primary with support from prominent members of his party. Former President Barack Obama has been among his biggest boosters, appearing with the former Paralympic basketball player in a basketball-themed campaign advertisement. Iowa still leans Republican, but Hinson could face added pressure if Democrat Rob Sand performs strongly in the governor’s race. The Cook Political Report initially rated the contest “lean Republican” before shifting it to “toss-up” in late August. An Echelon Insights poll from the third week of October gave Turek a narrow advantage, 45 percent to 43 percent.
Michigan Senate: Mike Rogers (R) versus Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Michigan is among the clearest Senate toss-ups, with Democrats defending an open seat after progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won a turbulent primary over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. His one-point victory demonstrated his appeal among the party’s progressive base but also raised questions about whether that support can carry him through a general election. El-Sayed performed particularly well with Arab-American and younger voters, while Stevens was stronger among older Democrats and African-American voters. El-Sayed has worked to broaden his coalition, appearing at a rally with former Vice President Kamala Harris and planning another event with former President Barack Obama. Republican Mike Rogers, a former House member, had been waiting for the Democratic field to settle before beginning the general-election fight. The Cook Political Report rates the contest a “toss-up.” A CNN/SSRS poll released in the final week of October showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 49 percent to 42 percent.
Texas Senate: Ken Paxton (R) versus James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D)
Texas Republicans are trying to hold a Senate seat that has become far more competitive than expected. Attorney General Ken Paxton won a divisive GOP primary with Trump’s endorsement, defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Democrat James Talarico, a state legislator, emerged from his own primary after overcoming House firebrand Jasmine Crockett. Paxton enters the general election carrying significant political baggage, including allegations of adultery during a contentious divorce and his previous impeachment by the Texas House before Republican senators acquitted him. He nevertheless prevailed in a primary dominated by Christian evangelical voters. Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking an unprecedented fourth consecutive term, a campaign that was expected to lift GOP turnout statewide. But even that contest has tightened. The Senate race is now rated a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report after previously being labeled “lean Republican.” A CNN/SSRS poll published during the final week of October put Talarico ahead 49 percent to 43 percent.
Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) versus Dan Osborn (I)
Pete Ricketts (R) and Dan Osborn (I)
Independent Dan Osborn is making another statewide run in Nebraska, two years after losing a 2024 Senate contest to a Republican. This time, he is challenging incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts, a former governor. Osborn’s campaign has faced scrutiny over reports that he paid himself and relatives nearly $500,000 from campaign funds, as well as revelations involving his daughter’s participation in NSFW platforms. Ricketts remains the clear favorite, and the Cook Political Report rates the race “likely Republican.” An Echelon Insights poll conducted during the third week of October showed Ricketts narrowly ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.
Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan (R) versus Mary Peltola (D)
Dan S Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D)
Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s junior senator since 2015, faces a serious challenge from former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, whose moderate record could appeal to the state’s independent-minded electorate. Peltola finished ahead of Sullivan in the August open primary, receiving 48.2 percent compared with his 42.9 percent. The ballot also includes another candidate named Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher, while Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of uncertainty. The New York Times reported that Peltola allies helped recruit the second Sullivan in an effort to create voter confusion. The Cook Political Report rates the contest a “toss-up.” An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters conducted October 9-10 showed Peltola leading 50 percent to 48 percent.
Kansas Senate: Roger Marshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D)
Republican Senator Roger Marshall is defending a seat Democrats have not captured in nearly a century. His challenger is Adam Hamilton, a pastor at one of the largest churches in the Kansas City metropolitan area. Marshall’s campaign was shaken by a New York Times report that he sued more than 700 former patients over unpaid medical bills while practicing as an OB-GYN in Great Bend for two decades before entering Congress. Marshall has dismissed the story as a Democratic attack, saying only “a very small, small, small fraction” of unpaid bills ever reached collections. Trump has defended him, describing Marshall as “great” and “a wonderful person” who received a “bum rap” because the law required him to seek payment from patients in a Truth Social post last week. The Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” during the first week of October. A CNN/SSRS poll released in the final week of October showed Hamilton ahead with 49 percent support, compared with 45 percent for Marshall.
