Republicans appear headed for a House defeat in less than a week, and even President Donald Trump is warning that his supporters may not turn out when he is not on the ballot.
The GOP has held the White House, Senate and House since Trump returned to power in January 2025. Yet polling throughout the midterm campaign has repeatedly favored Democrats, with the party’s advantage growing in recent months.
Trump has publicly raised doubts about whether conservative voters will participate in an election without his name appearing on the ballot.
“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote, and that’s the one thing I can’t tell,” he said recently, calling on Republicans to vote as though he were a candidate.
Republicans do have one major advantage: financial resources. The party is raising more money than Democrats both nationally and in several key battlegrounds. But campaign cash cannot guarantee turnout, and control of the House is expected to hinge on a small group of competitive districts.
Here are the contests most likely to determine the balance of power, including races shaped by scandals, serious allegations and unexpected political alliances.
10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November
President Donald Trump is likely to be working without a GOP majority in the US House of Representatives for the last two years of his second term
The US House
Republicans currently hold a 218-212 advantage in the US House of Representatives, although four seats are vacant: three previously held by Democrats and one by a Republican.
Democrats need to capture at least three Republican-held seats to take control of the chamber.
These are the closest contests heading into November, with the races featuring absent lawmakers, abuse allegations and other political controversies.
New Jersey’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) versus Rebecca Bennett (D)
Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) and Rebecca Bennett (D)
Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr of New Jersey missed more than 140 consecutive votes earlier this year, later attributing his absence to depression when he returned to Washington. His extended disappearance and limited explanations prompted questions from local and national media about his secrecy and his ability to represent constituents. In November, Kean will face Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who won the Democratic nomination comfortably over three other candidates. The Cook Political Report moved the contest from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” at the end of September.
Ohio’s 7th District: Rep. Max Miller (R) versus Brian Poindexter (D)
Rep. Max Miller (R) and Brian Poindexter (D)
Ohio’s 7th District has become one of the most closely watched races, as domestic “abuse” allegations surround Trump-backed incumbent Max Miller. His former wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, has made serious claims involving their two-year-old daughter—allegations Miller has denied. His support among voters has fallen sharply since the physical abuse claims, first reported by Our News Outlet, emerged. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as a “toss up,” while recent polling showed Miller trailing by roughly eight points.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) versus Janelle Stelson (D)
Rep. Scott Perry (R) and Janelle Stelson (D)
Republican Rep. Scott Perry is preparing for a rematch with Janelle Stelson after narrowly defeating her in 2024. Perry received 50.5 percent of the vote, compared with Stelson’s 49.3 percent. As a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, Perry faces questions about whether his politics fit the swing district. The Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” during the first week of October. A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted for The Philadelphia Inquirer in the third week of October showed the candidates tied at 48 percent.
Virginia’s 2nd District: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) versus Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) versus Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)
Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans will face Democrat Elaine Luria again in a contest for the district Luria previously represented. Kiggans defeated Luria in 2022, after Luria had served two terms following her 2018 victory over Republican Scott Taylor. Both candidates are Navy veterans competing to represent a district that includes nearly 90,000 veterans. The Cook Political Report has shifted the race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.” A Christopher Newport University poll conducted during the first week of October put Luria ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, with 10 percent of respondents undecided.
New York’s 17th District: Mike Lawler (R) versus Cait Conley (D)
Mike Lawler (R) and Cait Conley (D)
Republican incumbent Mike Lawler is facing Democrat and veteran Cait Conley in another closely watched New York contest. Lawler has drawn scrutiny over his friendship with Max Miller, who faces abuse allegations, as well as his campaign spending. He also recently acknowledged that he had been “arrested for DWI” when he was younger. A decade-old police report obtained by Our News Outlet documented reckless conduct and recorded his blood-alcohol level at .14, nearly twice the state’s legal limit of .08 at the time. Lawler has embraced President Donald Trump, unlike some Republican colleagues, and received a prominent speaking slot at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas in September. He also received an unexpected endorsement from outgoing Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, who published a letter supporting Lawler in his hometown newspaper at the end of September. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up.”
Michigan’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) versus William Lawrence (D)
Rep. Tom Barrett (R) and William Lawrence (D)
Freshman Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces a difficult first re-election campaign against William Lawrence, a progressive climate organizer whose 13-year-old felony case stemmed from his activism. During a 2013 protest at an Enbridge Energy pipeline construction site, Lawrence chained himself to equipment and refused to leave. He was charged with resisting and obstructing police, a felony conviction that was later expunged. The Cook Political Report lists the race as a “toss up.” An Emerson College poll conducted in mid-October showed Lawrence ahead 53 percent to 45 percent.
Iowa’s 1st District: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) versus Christina Bohannan (D)
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) and Christina Bohannan (D)
Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks has faced competitive elections before, including her first federal race in 2020, which she won by just six votes. Like Kiggans, she must balance the demands of the Republican base with the preferences of independent voters. Her Democratic challenger is Christina Bohannan, a lawyer, engineer and former state representative. Miller-Meeks, along with Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, could be affected by strong turnout for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand if his supporters vote down the entire ticket. The Cook Political Report moved the contest from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” during the first week of October.
Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) versus Eric Flores (R)
Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) and Eric Flores (R)
Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez is defending a redrawn district against Republican Eric Flores. The area has moved toward the GOP in recent years, and Flores argues that voters in the heavily Hispanic district do not share Democratic opposition to Trump’s immigration policies. Gonzalez, by contrast, has described Trump’s approach as “America Last.” The Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Democrat” after previously listing it as a “toss up.” A Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Government poll conducted in mid-October gave Gonzalez a seven-point lead, with 50 percent backing him and 43 percent supporting Flores.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Denise Powell (D) versus Brinker Harding (R)
Denise Powell (D) and Brinker Harding (R)
Republican Rep. Don Bacon, a retired US Air Force brigadier general, decided not to seek re-election in 2026. He won his 2024 race despite Kamala Harris carrying the district by five points, leaving one of the country’s most vulnerable Republican House seats open. Republican candidate Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Councilman, will face Denise Powell, a mother and small-business owner, for Bacon’s seat in November. The Cook Political Report moved the contest from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat” during the first week of October.
California’s 22nd District: Rep. David Valadao (R) versus Randy Villegas (D)
Rep. David Valadao (R) and Randy Villegas (D)
Republican Rep. David Valadao has maintained an independent profile during six terms in the House. If he wins re-election, he would be the only Republican House member still serving during the second half of Trump’s second term after voting to impeach the president in 2021. Valadao’s November opponent is Randy Villegas, an educator and activist. The Cook Political Report rates the district as a “toss up.”
