CNN Analyst Predicts Midterm ‘Blowout’ as Democrats Gain Ground

Democrats could be on course for a remarkable midterm election victory that would wrest control of Congress from Republicans, according to CNN’s senior polling analyst. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said the available numbers point to a potentially devastating night for President Donald Trump’s party. In a forecast delivered Sunday, Enten said Democrats appeared well positioned to win the House of Representatives and were also favored to secure a comfortable Senate majority. With the November elections little more than a week away, he suggested the fight for control of Capitol Hill may not be as competitive as some observers expect. Instead, the data indicates Republicans could face a heavy defeat capable of significantly altering Washington’s balance of power. “The midterms are just days away and I’m pouring over hundreds, no thousands, of polls and data points,” Enten told viewers. “And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory! My goodness gracious!” He emphasized that the forecast was based on statistical modeling, not personal political preferences.

“And of course, don’t be angry with me because the numbers do the talking and I just listen,” he added. Enten first assessed the House contest, where Democrats are seeking to benefit from voter dissatisfaction and end the Republican majority. His model gave Democrats a 71% chance of winning at least 230 House seats, a result he described as a “blowout.” “The chance of a House blowout is 71%, 71%,” Enten said. “Now, there’s a 29% chance that it doesn’t happen, right? But 71% things happen more often than 29% things. I know enough of math to know that.”

The outlook became even more difficult for Republicans when Enten broke down which party was most likely to reach that level of success. His analysis put the GOP’s chance of winning at least 230 seats at just 2%, compared with a 69% probability for Democrats. “We haven’t seen the type of error necessary for Republicans to actually blow out the Democrats,” Enten said. “What we’re talking about here is that Democrats are really the ones who have the real chance of blowing out the Republicans.”

He characterized the Democratic outlook as “a very, very nice 69% chance.” Such a result would be a major political setback for Trump, giving Democrats the numbers to challenge his administration’s legislative agenda and increase congressional scrutiny. Enten then examined the Senate, where the race for control has been among the election cycle’s most closely watched contests. His projections again gave Democrats an advantage, with a 57% chance of winning at least 52 seats. That would provide more than the 51 seats required for a majority and give the party a margin beyond the bare minimum.

“It’s a 57% chance that Democrats win,” he explained. “Not just a majority in the United States Senate, but a majority with room to spare in the United States Senate.” Enten nevertheless cautioned that Republicans had not been eliminated from contention. His forecast gave the GOP a 24% chance of winning at least 51 Senate seats, meaning a decisive Republican victory remained possible despite the Democrats’ statistical edge. Taken together, the figures indicated an 81% probability that one party would finish with a Senate majority larger than the narrowest margin.

That left a 19% chance of an exceptionally tight contest in which control could hinge on a single race. “So yeah, look, there’s a 19% chance, right? On the other side of this coin that we’re really down to the wire, when we’re really counting the ballots and one state is ultimately going to decide things on election night,” Enten said. “It’s possible, but it’s only about a one in five chance.” He concluded that the most probable result was a Senate majority with at least one seat to spare, rather than an outcome decided by the narrowest possible margin.