Colton Weaver, a 37-year-old mechanic from Beaumont, Texas, once fit the profile of the voter who helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency.
On Tuesday, however, he plans to vote for a Democrat.
“I think it’s time for a change from what we have now,” Weaver told Our News Outlet. “We need to get those changes moving quickly.”
He is far from the only voter reconsidering his support.
Exit polls show Trump won roughly two-thirds of white voters without college degrees in each of his three presidential campaigns. Yet a New York Times poll now finds that fewer than half approve of his performance in office.
The blue-collar coalition that carried Trump to the White House in 2016 and remained with him in 2020 and 2024 appears to be showing signs of strain.
Anger over the economy and the rising cost of living is widespread, with frustration intensified by the ongoing war with Iran.
The administration is also facing backlash over its handling of the Epstein files, including from parts of the MAGA movement. Podcaster Joe Rogan described the issue as “a line in the sand” and accused the administration of attempting to “gaslight” voters.
President Trump’s support among white working class voters has fallen and could impact the midterms
Dwight Phillips, a working class voter in Macomb County, said he was voting for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed
Jeff Borja, a retired history teacher also in Macomb County, voted for Trump in 2016 but is now throwing his support behind El-Sayed
Democrats believe the Epstein controversy is gaining traction with working-class voters. In Kansas, they have launched advertisements accusing Republican Senator Roger Marshall of “protecting pedophiles” through his congressional votes and portraying him as part of the “Epstein class.”
In Florida, Democrats spent heavily on a 30-second commercial aired during Game 3 of the World Series. The ad featured an Epstein survivor accusing Republican Senator Ashley Moody of “voting to protect the man who abused me.”
One of the clearest tests of Trump’s remaining influence among white working-class voters will come in Michigan’s Macomb County.
Macomb was the birthplace of the “Reagan Democrats” phenomenon, when white working-class voters broke from the Democratic Party after decades of backing candidates shaped by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.
Dwight Phillips, a working-class voter in the county, said he would support Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
“People are tired of hearing the same old story,” Phillips told Our News Outlet. “They’re tired of Trump. People don’t merely dislike him—they hate him—and they want to see new ideas, such as Medicare for All.”
Jeff Borja, a 59-year-old retired history teacher from Macomb County, supported Trump in 2016. This time, he is backing El-Sayed.
Borja said Trump’s first term left him disappointed, particularly the failure to achieve a peaceful transfer of power after the 2020 election. “To me, that was embarrassing,” he said.
Borja now says policy, rather than party loyalty, will determine his vote. He sees El-Sayed as more focused on easing financial pressure on households and strongly objects to Republican economic proposals.
“The only people who suffer from tariffs are the citizens of this country,” Borja said.
Macomb County, Michigan, is where the ‘Reagan Democrats’ phenomenon was born
Voters in Michigan tell Our News Outlet that they’re voting for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed
Former President Barack Obama rallied on behalf of Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit last weekend
President Trump speaks at a campaign rally this week in the lead-up to the elections
In Sedgwick County, Kansas, a pivotal region in the deeply Republican state where the Senate contest has become competitive, affordability dominated conversations among white working-class men.
The concern surfaced repeatedly.
Damien Gilbert, a 32-year-old union carpenter, said many of his friends can no longer keep up with their expenses.
“Everything keeps getting more expensive, especially with this ridiculous war of choice,” Gilbert said. “Now we can’t afford gas, and food prices continue to climb.”
Similar frustrations are being voiced throughout the Midwest.
“I work in fast food, and I haven’t had a raise in a year and a half,” said Cody, a 32-year-old seeking employment in Dayton, Ohio.
“I’m overqualified. It feels like there’s no real opportunity. It’s difficult for people to earn an honest living.”
“I’m a fast food worker, and I haven’t seen a raise in a year and a half,” said Cody, a 32-year-old looking for work in Ohio
Tariffs are at the center of much of that frustration.
Trump first tapped into anger across the industrial heartland over manufacturing losses linked to the aftermath of NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement signed under President Bill Clinton.
During his second term, many blue-collar voters continued to support Trump because they believed tariffs would help restore American jobs.
That confidence has since weakened sharply. Support for Trump’s tariffs among blue-collar workers has fallen by 25 percentage points, according to the State of the American Worker Survey from Echelon Insights.
The survey found that 36 percent now support the tariffs, while 58 percent oppose them.
More than two-thirds of blue-collar respondents also said tariffs had raised their cost of living.
Still, disappointment with Trump is not universal.
“Everyone around me says the same thing: We love Trump,” said John Foret, 35, an electrician in Jefferson County, Texas, who has spent eight years working in the oil and gas industry.
Foret said former President Joe Biden “just didn’t care” about blue-collar workers, a view that could keep some voters from moving to the Democratic Party.
“I did the math. I don’t know the exact numbers, but it seems like I have more money in my pocket—or they’re working toward putting more money in my pocket,” Foret said.
Josh and Stephanie spoke with Our News Outlet ahead of Election Day on Tuesday
Our News Outlet spoke to voters during a Halloween block party in Dayton’s Oregon District, many who are unhappy with the current cost of living
“In my eyes, Trump supports blue-collar workers and the men and women who go out every day and earn a living with their hands,” he added.
That loyalty has led Foret to support Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued Republican Senate candidate in Texas. Paxton is counting on Trump’s coalition to help him defeat Democrat James Talarico.
At a final Texas rally last week, Trump addressed a largely male audience and promoted the prospect of “free oil” from Venezuela, saying it would come at no cost. So far, however, the promise has not produced a dramatic decline in fuel prices.
Some Republican strategists have questioned Trump’s campaign appearances, warning that his involvement could alienate independent voters.
The White House, however, believes the numbers still favor Trump and that he can motivate mildly disaffected white working-class men to turn out.
In every major Senate contest, voters without college degrees are expected to account for more than half of the ballots cast.
That is despite the fact that college-educated voters typically represent a share of the electorate about five percentage points higher in midterm elections than in presidential contests.
Trump is supporting Ken Paxton for the Senate in Texas in a tight race in the traditionally red state
Texas Democratic candidate James Talarico has a lot of momentum heading into Tuesday’s election
Trump’s approval rating, though, has fallen to a record-low 36 percent in the latest New York Times poll.
That makes Republicans more dependent than ever on white working-class voters, even as that group begins to waver.
James Cox, a 38-year-old Maine voter who has supported Republicans in the past, told Our News Outlet that the war with Iran has made him reconsider his allegiance to the GOP.
“I want someone who wants to end the Iran war because it affects everyone here,” Cox said. “It affects people at the gas pump. Prices have doubled over the past few months. It’s crazy. Everything is more expensive.”
Trump has reportedly weighed additional strikes against Iran, potentially after the midterm elections. His statements about bringing the conflict to an end have remained unclear.
The White House presents a sharply different assessment of the economy.
Officials argue that the administration has delivered stronger job growth than the Biden administration and say inflation-adjusted pay for blue-collar manufacturing workers has risen by an average of $2,400 annually.
“Wages are rising faster than inflation, domestic manufacturing is expanding, and the blue-collar jobs lost under the Biden administration are rightly returning to U.S. soil,” the White House said in a statement.
President Trump has rallied supporters to get them to the polls in the midterms
Workers have shifted their support against tariffs, according to polling
Trump still has the support of many blue-collar workers and the White House says his economic policies are unleashing a ‘golden age’
But blaming Biden, who has been out of office for nearly two years, may not persuade voters searching for immediate relief from financial pressure.
Economists Jordan McGillis and John Lettieri of the Economic Innovation Group summarized the challenge in their analysis.
On the cost of living—the issue workers identify as their top concern—they wrote that “workers say the president’s policies have made their problems worse.”
“It’s the cost of living, stupid. Always was.”
