Tucker Carlson jolted Washington ahead of the midterm elections with a dire warning that President Donald Trump could be only days away from ordering a nuclear strike against Iran.
The former Fox News host, once one of Trump’s most prominent supporters, wrote in a lengthy Sunday night post on X that the potential target was Pickaxe Mountain, a network of tunnels carved deep beneath the rock in central Iran.
Carlson claimed the secretive nuclear site is buried beneath about 300 feet of solid rock, placing it beyond the effective reach of conventional bombs and making a nuclear weapon, in his account, the only option capable of destroying it.
He further alleged, without citing evidence or identifying sources, that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was applying intense pressure on Trump to authorize an attack.
The claim detonated across an already divided Republican Party. Within hours, some dismissed it as reckless fearmongering, while others treated it as a warning of a serious policy debate inside the administration.
Trump has said he is prepared to resume military action to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. However, during an October interview with Newsmax, he expressly ruled out using nuclear weapons for that purpose.
On Saturday, Trump identified Pickaxe Mountain as a possible target but did not announce any nuclear operation. Iran denies conducting nuclear activity at the site, which was not hit in either of the two wars fought so far.
Experts who spoke to the Daily Mail cautioned that a US nuclear attack could breach the UN Charter and humanitarian law. They also warned it could destroy the decades-old taboo against nuclear weapons that has helped restrain Russia, China and other American adversaries.
A nuclear explosion in Iran could contaminate Gulf waters, endanger drinking supplies for 100 million people and disrupt oil, shipping and fertilizer markets worldwide
Experts told the Daily Mail that a sitting US president is not required to consult the defense secretary or other advisers before ordering a nuclear strike
They largely rejected Carlson’s specific prediction, though some acknowledged that he may have become aware of military options presented to a president who has the authority to act alone.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a former acting US deputy assistant secretary of state for non-proliferation and now an associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, described a nuclear attack on Iran as a “war crime of the highest order.”
“A president who used nuclear weapons in circumstances when the US is not itself facing an existential threat, much less any threat at all, would go down in history as among the evilest of men,” Fitzpatrick told the Daily Mail.
He nevertheless said the decision would ultimately belong to one person, with no requirement to seek approval from senior advisers. “A US president has sole authority to order a nuclear attack. The system was set up for speed, not contemplation,” he said.
David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said Carlson may have learned of an options discussion involving Trump and senior military officials.
Albright also acknowledged the physical possibility of such an attack. “Obviously, drop a 3 or 4 kiloton nuclear weapon on a critical point in Pickaxe Mountain… the shockwave could bring down the roofs of the underground structures,” he told the Daily Mail.
Pickaxe Mountain is among the sites the US could consider targeting if military operations against Iran resume
The potential payoff, he argued, would be limited: “It’s a big storage shed.”
Government assessments reviewed by Albright indicate that no operational activity is taking place inside Pickaxe, including uranium enrichment or weapons development. Israel, however, has long suspected that the facility contains centrifuges and possibly enriched uranium.
Albright raised a more unconventional possibility: a deep-penetrating bunker-buster carrying a warhead with a yield of just 0.1 to 0.5 kilotons. The blast, he suggested, could be “contained by the overburden” of rock and limit damage at the surface.
But he stressed that the necessary technology “doesn’t exist” and that “no one’s done it.”
North Korea provides the closest comparison. Albright said its underground nuclear tests, conducted in tunnels, contained radioactive material. However, the country’s last test in 2017 was estimated at between 100 and 250 kilotons, triggered a magnitude 6.3 earthquake and collapsed the cavity it created.
A more plausible nuclear attack on Iran would probably involve a ground burst, Albright said, generating “a very intense radioactive plume that just moves with the wind… at ground level.”
The result would be “all kinds of radioactive contamination” for which Iran “likely could hold the US responsible,” creating a “public relations nightmare” and provoking “the wrath of the world.”
Defense analysts have focused on the B61-11, the only US nuclear bomb designed to penetrate the ground before detonating
The weapon can be carried by several US fighter jets and bombers, military assets the Pentagon already has positioned around Iran
Many defense analysts have focused on the B61-11, the only US nuclear bomb built to burrow into the ground before exploding. Carlson did not identify a weapon, but analysts say the bomb was developed for targets of this kind.
About 12 feet long and weighing roughly 1,200 pounds, the weapon was developed during the 1990s. Its precise yield remains classified, although estimates reach 340 kilotons—more than 20 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
It could be dropped by a range of US fighter aircraft or bombers, military platforms the Pentagon already has on standby near Iran.
But the weapon is not a true underground penetrator. It can burrow only a few meters, while the Pickaxe complex is believed to sit 260 to 330 feet below the surface. Albright said the B61 “goes in, but it doesn’t go in that deep.”
Even a low-yield detonation at that depth, Albright added, “is going to create a lot of local fallout.” He described the concept as “something that was considered, but… not going to take place.”
The current war is now eight months old. It began on February 28, when US and Israeli strikes hit Tehran and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei within hours.
Several ceasefires have broken down, while mediators are working to prevent another escalation.
Some experts paid close attention to Carlson’s warning because of his connections to Vice President JD Vance and senior Trump officials. Ryan Grim, co-founder of Drop Site News, said Carlson was “extremely well sourced” within the administration and should not be disregarded.
A B-2 Spirit takes position during a refueling mission over the North Atlantic Ocean
Workers operate inside a nuclear facility in Isfahan, Iran, where officials insist the country’s program is exclusively peaceful
Former Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said: “This would be crimes against humanity. It must be stopped.” The National Iranian American Council, a US nonprofit organization, described the possibility as an “unconscionable horror.”
Carlson also warned that an explosion could contaminate Gulf waters, endanger drinking supplies for 100 million people and destabilize global oil, shipping and fertilizer markets.
Michael Pregent, a former US Army intelligence officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, rejected Carlson’s warning and accused him of using the issue for political effect.
“He’s just trying to stir up the right, the anti-war right,” said Pregent, a veteran who spent years fighting Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East. “You don’t need a nuclear weapon to take out Pickaxe Mountain.”
He argued that conventional weapons could destroy the site, pointing to repeated waves of deep-penetration bombs used during last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer.
Crossing the nuclear threshold, Pregent told the Daily Mail, would give US rivals an opening to justify their own use of such weapons.
“It escalates. It allows [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to use one in Ukraine. Allows China to use one,” he said.
Instead, Pregent advocates a major conventional campaign: 30 to 60 days of uninterrupted US-Israeli strikes, with Israel targeting Iran’s remaining leadership, the US destroying rebuilt facilities and opposition forces receiving support.
“Trump can do whatever the hell he wants to before the next Congress is seated,” he said.
Iranian technicians handle a container of radioactive uranium linked to the nuclear program that has made the country an international pariah
Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was once one of Donald Trump’s most vocal supporters
Tucker Carlson made the alarming claim on the eve of the midterm elections that Trump could soon order a nuclear strike against Iran
“Anytime you see any sort of activity around these sites that we’ve hit, you hit them again. Just hit them again.”
Few observers doubt that fighting could resume after the midterms. Trump has said he is considering “another little Epic Fury,” while also predicting that the conflict will end soon after the elections.
Israel has reportedly pressed for several days of intense bombardment, and its officials recently gave US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth an updated list of targets. Analysts say a broader campaign could include Pickaxe Mountain, Revolutionary Guard commanders and civilian infrastructure.
War fatigue is spreading among many MAGA supporters, while higher gasoline prices caused by the conflict have weakened public backing for the president.
Carlson’s opponents argue that this is precisely his objective: to intensify those frustrations, compound Trump’s political problems and weaken his image among voters who once viewed him as a peacemaker.
