Surely it was only a matter of time before Falkirk shook off their difficult start and began climbing the Premiership standings?
Actually, plenty of people had their doubts.
The club endured a major summer overhaul, with 17 players leaving and several key figures from last season’s surprise top-six finish moving on.
Barney Stewart joined West Bromwich Albion and Calvin Miller signed for Hearts, with both departures providing Falkirk with valuable transfer income. Dylan Tait switched to Premiership rivals Dundee United, while Ben Broggio returned to Aston Villa following an impressive loan campaign in Scotland.
Defenders Filip Lissah and Kyrell Wilson also went back to Swansea, their parent club. Lissah has since become a regular for the promotion contenders, while Wilson is now playing in Belgium’s top flight with Gent.
Replacing such an influential group was always going to be a huge challenge. A repeat top-six finish seemed increasingly unlikely.
The early results only strengthened the belief that Falkirk’s main objective this season might simply be to avoid relegation.
Falkirk striker Jacob Murrell has scored four goals in his last five Premiership games
Yet, with November now here, those concerns appear to have been misplaced. Once again, Falkirk have shown that writing them off is a dangerous mistake.
It has taken longer than manager John McGlynn would have wanted, but his reshaped squad are finally beginning to look settled.
Three consecutive Premiership victories represent a significant achievement. Despite all the praise Falkirk received for reaching the top half last season, they never managed a winning run of that length.
More impressive still is the manner in which this latest burst of form has been achieved. It has not followed the usual Falkirk script.
With the exception of Motherwell, Falkirk were arguably the most entertaining team in the top flight last season. Their adventurous football also powered them through League One and the Championship during their remarkable rise.
The attacking approach has not disappeared because of a lack of ambition, but the expansive blueprint that drove so much of their recent success has been largely set aside over the past two weeks.
At Easter Road, two outstanding moments from Jacob Murrell made the difference, but the result was built mainly on a determined, stubborn defensive display.
Murrell and fellow American CJ Fodrey have been taken into the hearts of Bairns fans
The 3-0 win over Kilmarnock looked comfortable on paper, although Storm Boelo turned the contest into a physical test of endurance rather than a flowing football match.
Then, in midweek at Pittodrie, McGlynn conceded that his players had produced a performance to survive rather than savour.
Taking nine points from their last three games while operating well below their best is a hugely encouraging sign. Falkirk have also benefited from finally avoiding the late goals that had cost them so dearly earlier in the campaign.
Dundee United, St Johnstone and Dundee have all snatched points from the Bairns with almost the final kick of the game. Had Falkirk held on in each of those matches, they could be five points better off now. But football rarely rewards speculation.
The bigger point is that Falkirk currently look extremely difficult to break down. Every part of the team appears to be developing a stronger understanding.
There is nothing wrong with winning in style, and that will remain the ambition while McGlynn is in charge. But Falkirk are now proving they can also grind out results when attractive football is not an option.
For the manager, that may be just as satisfying, particularly at this stage of the season.
McGlynn deserves much of the credit for the transformation. He has rebuilt the squad almost from scratch and done so without making excuses.
John McGlynn has once again proven himself a master in the art of squad rebuilding
In doing so, he has outperformed several clubs operating with considerably greater financial resources. Success on a large budget has never been McGlynn’s speciality anyway.
His ability to identify the right players remains one of his greatest strengths. Owen Eames, a 19-year-old loan signing from Derby County, was never expected to replicate the output of Miller – very few players could. But he has adapted quickly and continues to improve every week.
The striker ahead of him is also making a rapidly growing impression. Murrell has moved a long way from the night he missed two glaring chances against Rangers on his home debut in September, scoring five goals in his seven appearances since.
During his time with DC United in MLS, the American was hardly known for prolific scoring. There was little in his previous record to suggest he would make such an impact in Scotland. Credit belongs to Murrell, as well as Falkirk’s recruitment team, for proving those assumptions wrong.
Murrell will surely relish the chance to face a Celtic defence that has looked vulnerable throughout the season.
He is playing with the confidence of a forward who believes one opportunity is all he needs. Against Celtic, regardless of their position at the top of the table, chances may come his way.
Falkirk have been beaten in their last ten meetings with Sunday’s visitors. But given their current form and growing resilience, this looks like a real chance to bring that miserable run to an end.
