Beijing has acknowledged for the first time that it is discussing a potentially historic meeting involving Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told reporters at a briefing in Beijing this week that China “is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state.”
No agreement has been finalized. If the meeting goes ahead, it would reportedly be held later this month on the sidelines of a regional summit in Shenzhen, in southern China.
A three-way encounter would be unprecedented. Analysts caution, however, that the leaders may avoid substantive negotiations because their interests sharply diverge. Instead, China could carefully stage the gathering as a powerful diplomatic photo opportunity.
“I think it will happen. The question is the format and the content,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “China wants the image but not the costs.”
China is hosting this year’s leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, a 21-member bloc that includes both the United States and Russia.
Trump is expected to travel to Shenzhen for his third meeting with Xi this year as the two countries try to preserve a fragile trade truce scheduled to expire in January.
Signs of continuing friction emerged Friday, when US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer urged Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng during a video call to take “concrete actions to fully implement its past commitments, particularly as they relate to agricultural purchases, rare earths, and other critical minerals,” according to a statement from Greer’s office.
China’s official Xinhua news agency said Saturday that the two sides held deep and constructive discussions. It also reported that Beijing raised concerns about Washington’s restrictions on trade and economic activity involving China.
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During his China trip, Trump has said he would welcome a meeting with Xi and Putin focused on nuclear arms control. Putin, however, is primarily seeking talks on the war in Ukraine, apparently without Ukrainian representatives present.
“Putin has the most to gain from a leaders’ trilateral, and the Russians are clearly behind the push for a meeting, which would be a diplomatic coup,” said Danny Russel, a former senior State Department official in the Obama administration.
Trump, who Russel said has a “crush on authoritarian strongmen,” would likely welcome the encounter. But his advisers appear to have cautioned him against allowing Ukraine to dominate the discussion, said Russel, now a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Sun said Russia could use the summit to push China and the United States closer to Moscow’s position on Ukraine, leaving Beijing to “manage Russian manipulation.”
China is also unlikely to enter substantive negotiations on arms control, Ukraine or Iran, Sun said. Its response on those issues would probably remain limited to its standard call for peace and an end to war.
For Beijing, the greatest challenge may be managing the symbolism of the event. The summit, Sun said, “should not be equated to three great powers dividing up the world.”
The encounter could ultimately amount to little more than a photo opportunity that enables Putin to stand alongside the American and Chinese leaders, said Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“But these photo opportunities have diminishing diplomatic returns,” Singleton said. “The spectacle may be historic without producing anything particularly consequential.”
