Ten matches into the Premier League season, the latest international break offers a timely chance to assess a campaign that has already delivered more than its share of surprises.
Michael Carrick leaves for the fortnight with Manchester United still in the relegation places. Brighton sit second behind an Arsenal side threatening to break clear, while Tottenham are only one point outside the top half — a position that hardly seems believable.
More than a quarter of the season has now been played. That is long enough for trends to emerge and teams to establish a direction, although it remains too early to know which clubs are thriving because of genuine improvement and which are riding an unsustainable run of luck.
So who is where they deserve to be? Which early-season narratives can be trusted? Daily Mail Sport examines the data to separate reality from illusion in the Premier League so far…
REAL: Defences CAN win you titles, just ask Arsenal
Sir Alex Ferguson’s famous claim that “attack wins you games, defence wins you titles” was not entirely accurate. Across the 31 completed Premier League seasons featuring 20 teams, fewer than half of the champions had conceded the fewest goals. By contrast, more than two-thirds had scored the most.
There have been occasions, particularly during Pep Guardiola’s reign, when the best defence and most productive attack belonged to the same side. Since 1995-96, the team with the league’s strongest defence has won the title 15 times, and on nine of those occasions it also led the scoring charts.
Arsenal’s goals, xG, shots and shots on target are all at their lowest per game since Mikel Arteta’s first season in charge. But thanks to their defence, they are five points clear at the top
Arsenal are not currently fitting that attacking profile. Their title-winning campaign last season was only the sixth in the previous 30 years in which the league’s best defence alone carried a team to the championship. This season, they are showing that a defensive platform can still be enough.
That is fortunate, because their attack has declined. The Gunners ranked second for goals last season, fourth for expected goals (xG) and fourth for shots. This term, they are sixth for goals, fifth for xG and 10th for attempts.
Their averages for goals, xG, shots and shots on target are all lower than at any point since Mikel Arteta’s first season in charge. The victory over Hull was their fourth 1-0 win of the campaign. Arteta will not be troubled by that statistic, however. Arsenal boast the division’s best xG difference, and their defence may be enough to secure another title.
FAKE: Forest are relegation fodder
Nottingham Forest’s emphatic 3-1 victory over Manchester City had been building for some time. Oliver Glasner’s early work on the Trent had attracted plenty of attention, even though Forest began the weekend second from bottom.
They had lost only once in nine matches. Was Glasner’s new system simply taking time to settle, as it did during his spell at Crystal Palace? And how long would owner Evangelos Marinakis remain patient before dismissing another head coach?
At the same stage last season, Forest had already appointed their third manager. This time, patience could finally pay off. Forest did not deserve to be sitting 19th. They have the fifth-best expected-goal difference in the division and, behind Arsenal, the league’s strongest defence by the numbers.
They have faced the fewest shots, allowed the second-fewest efforts on target behind Arsenal and conceded the second-lowest xG, again behind the Gunners. Forest have also made the fewest errors leading to shots all season, with only two. Bournemouth are next on five.
Their glaring weakness has been finishing. Only Sunderland, another team performing below its expected attacking figures, has underperformed its xG by more than Forest. When Glasner returned to Selhurst Park with Palace, Forest could easily have been four goals ahead by half-time.
Their shot-conversion rate is the lowest in the league at just 5.5 per cent, a figure that is almost impossible to sustain. Only one team since 2014-15 has finished a full season with a rate that low: Huddersfield in 2018-19, when they came bottom with 16 points. Forest are nowhere near that level.
The need for a striker has been clear for some time. If Liam Delap’s two goals against City can ignite his confidence and form, Forest may finally have the finisher required to climb the table — and perhaps even challenge for European qualification.
Nottingham Forest will hope Liam Delap’s brilliant brace against Manchester City is the start of them getting past their woes in front of goal
FAKE: Spurs are back!
Listen to Jamie O’Hara on talkSPORT after Tottenham’s three successive victories and you might conclude that Spurs have returned to their best.
They have not.
The defeat by Leeds, which brought them crashing back down to earth, was accompanied by numbers that tell an equally uncomfortable story. Tottenham’s underlying figures, particularly in attack, are not strong enough to suggest a revival.
They have attempted the fifth-most shots in the division, yet rank fourth-bottom for xG. Their xG per shot is the worst in the league, meaning they are taking plenty of efforts without regularly creating high-quality chances. With 40 per cent of their goals coming from outside the box — the highest proportion in the division — that production is unlikely to continue.
Tottenham are also short of creativity. Andy Robertson, from left back, has created the most chances for Spurs this season with 14. Twenty-seven players have created more than that, while 15 other clubs have at least one player ahead of Tottenham’s leading creator. Sunderland have two; Arsenal, Brighton and Manchester United have three.
Tottenham have the worst xG per shot in the league – meaning they rarely get into good positions to score
REAL: Brighton (and maybe Bournemouth) are in a title race
The Premier League has become accustomed to well-run, modestly funded clubs exceeding expectations. Even so, few would have predicted that one of them — or possibly two — might emerge as serious title contenders.
If a title race means the side best placed to finish closest to Arsenal, the underlying data suggests Brighton and Bournemouth deserve to be part of the conversation.
In terms of expected-goal difference — the quality of the chances a team creates compared with those it allows — Bournemouth and Brighton trail only Arsenal and Manchester City.
Brighton are comfortably the league’s top scorers, with five more goals than any other side. They are outperforming their expected figures, and their players are unlikely to continue scoring with such regularity from distance — Diego Gomez, in particular, has benefited from that trend. Even so, the Seagulls have the division’s second-highest xG behind City.
Brighton are also the only club with two players among the 11 who have created more than 20 chances: Pascal Gross and Maxim De Cuyper. They have beaten both Arsenal and City without conceding a goal.
The concern is at the other end. Brighton should have conceded roughly seven more goals than they have, meaning no team has overperformed its defensive data by as much. They will need to tighten up if they are to remain near the summit.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, are the side whose league position most clearly understates their level — a remarkable claim for a team that has won eight matches in a row in less than a month across all competitions. The Cherries are seventh but rank third for both xG and xG conceded. That profile usually points to sustained success.
Brighton’s Diego Gomez can’t continue scoring every shot he has from long range… can he?
Bournemouth are the ones who should be doing better, which sounds mad for a team that’s just won eight games on the bounce in less than a month
FAKE: Chelsea are European contenders
Chelsea are another team masking significant weaknesses with impressive results. Xabi Alonso’s side are fifth in the Premier League, a position for which the Spaniard can be grateful. Their performances do not justify it.
Chelsea rank in the bottom half of the division for both xG created and xG conceded. Their expected-goal difference places them 14th, below Fulham, Manchester United and Sunderland.
Only Brighton have scored further above their expected total, but Chelsea’s underlying numbers are far less convincing than those of the Seagulls. Opta’s expected-points table ranks them 12th.
They are also one of only two teams in the division yet to see a substitute score a goal this season.
Chelsea’s expected goal difference puts them in 14th, below Fulham, Manchester United and Sunderland
REAL: Newcastle are in trouble
Replacing a manager as influential as Eddie Howe was always likely to bring disruption. Selling Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon without adequately replacing them has made Newcastle’s task even more difficult.
Even allowing for that, Newcastle should be performing better. Only Hull and Coventry are creating weaker chances than they are. Their expected-goal difference is better only than Coventry, Ipswich and Crystal Palace, while Opta’s expected table places them just above the relegation zone.
Only three teams have faced more shots, only three have allowed more efforts on target and only five have completed fewer passes into the penalty area.
Daily Mail Sport reported last week that Newcastle players were “confused” by the instructions, style and strategy of new manager Matthias Jaissle. After the defeat by Everton, Jaissle accused his team of failing to follow the plan or execute the tactics prepared in training.
Newcastle must find a way to make the system work after the international break. If they cannot, much of their season could be spent looking nervously towards the relegation line.
FAKE? United are for the drop
Supporters of rival clubs have understandably enjoyed watching Manchester United’s latest chapter of self-inflicted turmoil.
Even the drama of recovering from two goals down against Aston Villa, and the brief surge of optimism that followed, only lifted United to 18th in the table.
Do they deserve to be there? With one victory — the fewest in the division — the answer would appear to be yes. Yet United may not have been quite as poor as their position suggests, even if they continue to undermine themselves.
United have taken more shots than any other team by a considerable margin, a statistic that naturally boosts their total xG. The problem is that too many attempts come from distance. Their approach is often more volume than precision.
Manchester United have been suffering from bad luck at the back – but will it correct itself in time to save them from a relegation battle?
Their xG per shot is the lowest in the league, confirming that they are rarely shooting from dangerous areas. Their conversion rate is also among the worst. With 45 per cent of their attempts coming from outside the box, that outcome is hardly surprising. It also makes their mid-table expected-goal difference somewhat deceptive.
The bigger issue is in defence, where United are repeatedly being punished. Their attacking and defensive stories are almost complete opposites.
United have faced relatively few shots but rank among the league leaders for shots on target conceded. Their opponents’ xG per shot is the highest in the division, and no team has allowed opponents to convert at a higher rate.
That level of punishment is unlikely to continue indefinitely. United should eventually benefit from some regression towards the mean, which may be enough to pull them away from danger — but probably only narrowly.
