‘Bill & Ted Face the Music, ‘Peninsula,’ ‘Mulan,’ ‘Tenet,’ ‘Little Women’ and ‘The New Mutants’
Orion, Well Go USA, Walt Disney, Warner Bros., Sony and 20th Century Pictures
Everything, in terms of domestic box office, overseas box office and PVOD and streaming alternatives, is coming to a head in the days before and after Labor Day weekend.
The Little Women are going to China! Oh, and so is Tenet. Alex Winter and Keanu Reeves’ Bill & Ted Face the Music will open early! That’s the news, as well as rumblings that Niki Caro’s Mulan will open in China on August 28, which is A) before Tenet’s September 4 release date in China and before Mulan’s (where it applies) global debut on Disney+ (also September 4). Greta Gerwig’s Little Women is opening theatrically in China on August 25 following a successful ($209 million worldwide on a $42 million budget. It’ll follow Ford v Ferrari and 1917 today and Bad Boys For Life opening on August 14.
In the last two weeks, China has had one bit of good news (Interstellar’s successful reissue with $9.9 million in five days), one bit of bad news (Paramount PGRE and Sega’s Sonic the Hedgehog flopping with just $1.77 million in a week) and one “eh” circumstance ($14.13 million isn’t enough to turn Dolittle into a hit, but it’s not nothing). And if this all comes to pass, then Tenet will open in America (in limited release) and China (Chris Nolan’s biggest overseas marketplace by far) on the same day. Walt Disney DIS is still committed to making Mulan a theatrical hit in the markets where it is playing theatrically.
They are releasing Mulan “early” In China to ward off potential piracy concerns after its PVOD/Disney+ debut. Orion has moved up the concurrent limited theatrical release/PVOD debut of Alex Winter and Keanu Reeves’ Bill & Ted Face the Music from September 2 to August 28. If this also comes to pass, it’ll open alongside the perpetually delayed The New Mutants which is still slated for August 28. Lionsgate’s Antebellum is no longer scheduled for August 21, meaning the kick-off movies that weekend will be Russell Crowe’s Unhinged, a limited launch of Train to Busan Presents Peninsula and the 10th anniversary release of Inception.
We’ll have the Chinese theatrical release of Mulan on August 28, along with the American release of Bill & Ted Face the Music, a film that likely would have been a hit under conventional circumstances and may be playing wide enough to make an impact in theaters and VOD. And, yeah, if it opens as scheduled, The New Mutants will be very interesting to watch as Josh Boone’s X-Men spin-off has been delayed for over two years and is arguably only heading to theaters because HBO still has the first dibs on Fox titles so Disney can’t just drop it on one of their streaming platforms.
Oh, and Tenet will open in much of the world, including Canada, the U.K. and Mexico on August 26 and it’ll open in China and (in an allegedly limited capacity) America one week later. By the end of Labor Day, Tenet will have been in American theaters and Chinese theaters for four days and in the rest of the world for 13 days, while Mulan will have debuted in Chinese theaters and on Disney+ in participating global marketplaces. None of us have any real idea of how these films will perform respectively in theaters and/or PVOD. That’s exciting, but also (given the circumstances) terrifying.
That 13-day span between August 26 and September 7 will be where it all happens. After months of handwringing, speculation and guestimation, the end of August and beginning of September will give us our first real clue as to whether audiences will show up for new movies if/when it’s somewhat safe to do so (at last until 2021). It’ll give us a big clue as to how many consumers will pay $30 to rent (or lease) an anticipated blockbuster movie from the comforts of home? Will new movies, some very big, jump-start the theatrical marketplace or will Hollywood be left hoping for a brighter 2021?
Will China flock to Mulan and/or Tenet? Will Disney+ subscribers splurge for Mulan instead of waiting for cheaper VOD or the film’s regular inclusion in Disney’s streaming platform? Will theaters showing Bill & Ted, Inception, Peninsula and/or Unhinged get a reasonable boost? Will Liam Neeson’s Honest Thief still open on September 4? Will any of these titles perform in ways, good or bad, to give us any real insight beyond “Well, in these unprecedented circumstances…”? If not, we’ll still be trying to read the tea leaves until (at best) September 18 with 20th Century and Disney’s The Kingsman or (likelier) October 2 with WB’s Wonder Woman 1984.
