LAS VEGAS, NV – JANUARY 28: David Benavidez (L) punches Sherali Mamajonov during the second round … [+]
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David Benavidez knows he’ll be a getting a challenge from Roamer Alexis Angulo when the two meet on Saturday night on Showtime. And though the oddsmakers have made him a healthy favorite, Benavidez, who badly missed weight on Friday and lost his super middleweight title on the scales, looks at Angulo’s resume and knows that the underdog will present a challenge.
“Angulo is very heavy-handed and he wants to win. He’s coming off of an upset win and I think that has him motivated to believe he can beat me,” Benavidez said this week. “I’m ready for whatever he brings to the ring. I just have to be patient. I can’t just try to knock him out and leave myself open. I have confidence in my abilities, and if I do everything right, I believe the knockout will come.”
Benavidez isn’t the only elite fighter competing this week. Carl Frampton and Michael Conlan are on the same card in London, and Cecilia Braekhus, the No. 1 pound for pound female fighter, will face a solid fighter in Jessica McCaskill.
Here’s what you need to know about the week in boxing odds.
Boxing odds: The 3 most interesting wagers this week
-David Benavidez vs. Roamer Alexis Angulo (-120 for a Benavidez KO/TKO): Breaking news on a Friday morning: Benavidez weighed in nearly three pounds over the 168-pound super middleweight limit and immediately said goodbye to his title. If Angulo wins on the Saturday night Showtime card, he’ll claim the belt. If Benavidez wins, the title will be vacant. Benavidez (22-0, 19 KOs) is a heavy betting favorite vs. Angulo (26-1, 22 KOs), but I wouldn’t mind taking him by stoppage. Before the weigh-in, Benavidez was a -1000 favorite. But afterward, he dropped to -900, meaning you’d have to wager $900 to win $100 (Angulo is now +500). But that -120 line for a Benavidez KO/TKO could provide good value. Benavidez has won 12 of his last 14 by stoppage, but Angulo has never been knocked down or knocked out. For what it’s worth, Benavidez’s body looked a little soft at the weigh-in, so he’s probably not in the greatest of shape. Taking a flyer on Angulo’s money line also isn’t a bad idea (he’s also +1100 to win by decision).
-Cecilia Braekhus (-800) vs. Jessica McCaskill (+450): The world’s No. 1 pound for pound fighter is back in action, and Braekhus (36-0, 9 KOs) is an even heavier favorite now than she was earlier in the week when she was -600 and McCaskill was +350. But getting McCaskill (8-2, 3 KOs) at +450 might not be a bad deal. Braekhus has only fought once in the past 20 months, and she’s now 38 years old. McCaskill took a few rounds off Katie Taylor during their fight in 2017, so it’s possible McCaskill could build an early lead on Braekhus if she’s suffering from ring rust. Braekhus is levels ahead of McCaskill, but you never can really tell when a once-dominant boxer gets just a little old in the ring. Either way, it certainly looks like Braekhus was doing everything possible to stay healthy before the fight.
-Michael Conlan (-5000) vs. Sofiane Takoucht (+1400): I haven’t seen any prop bets on this bout, but it should be relatively interesting, especially if Conlan (13-0, 7 KOs), as he recently told me, decides to be more aggressive and potentially go for a knockout vs. Takoucht (35-4-1, 13 KOs) during this Saturday afternoon featherweight fight. I wouldn’t bet on the money line, but I’ll update this if I see any interesting props.
What happened with last week’s boxing odds?
-While I wasn’t particularly excited by Fox’s first primetime broadcast, on paper at least, Jamal James and Thomas Dulorme put on a rather exciting main event last Saturday night. James won a unanimous decision but it wasn’t easy. James—who made a $200,000 purse vs. Dulorme’s $100,000—was just a little bit better, rewarding those who had put money on him when he was a -130 favorite only a few hours before the bout. Earlier in the week, James was as high as -190.
-The disparity between the records in the David Morrell vs. Lennox Allen fight were stark. Allen was 22-0-1 with 14 KOs. Meanwhile, Morrell was entering only his third pro fight. Yet, the bookies had Morrell as a big favorite at -1200, and the former Cuban amateur star won a wide unanimous decision, looking strong against a sturdy opponent to win an interim super middleweight title. But if you wagered on Morrell to win by a knockout, you came out of the fight disappointed. He was -550 to win by stoppage. However, if you wagered on a Morrell victory by decision, you’d have been more than happy to take that at +700.
-Another pandemic favorite falls. This time it was Mykal Fox losing a unanimous decision to Lucas Santamaria.
Tracking boxing’s future bets
-The Errol Spence vs. Danny Garcia PPV showdown for November was formally announced last week, and considering Spence is coming off what could have been a potentially career-ending car accident, you might be tempted to wager on the two-division titlist Garcia. Thus far, Spence is a solid but not huge favorite at about -290, while Garcia is a +240 underdog. I don’t think Garcia will beat Spence, but I wouldn’t mind wagering on him at somewhere around +300.
-We’re only about a week out from a fascinating heavyweight bout between Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin. Ever since losing to Anthony Joshua in 2015, he’s won 11 straight, including beating the likes of Joseph Parker, Robert Helenius and Dereck Chisora twice. He wants a title shot. But first, he’ll have to get by the 40-year-old Povetkin, who has won only once in his past three outings. At the beginning of July, Whyte was a -310 favorite with Povetkin at +260. But as of this writing, more of the money has come in on Whyte, who is now at -375 vs. Povetkin’s +275.
Gambling tweet of the week
Stay far, far away from this idea.
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