After Dismal Performance Last Month, L’Oreal Stock Looks Set To Rebound

L’Oreal stock (OTCMKTS: LRLCY) is down 14% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down 8.5%. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has dropped 4.6%, underperforming the broader markets. Additionally, L’Oreal’s most recent Q1 ’22 sales report saw revenue rise to $9.68 billion, up from $8.14 billion in Q1 ’21. Growth from Latin America contributed the most, with sales from this region rising 34% over this period. Despite the increasing sales, growing tensions in the broader markets have dragged down L’Oreal stock, which has lost 14% over the past month.

Now, is L’Oreal stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a more than 90% chance of a rise in L’Oreal stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on L’Oreal Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s revenues see L’Oreal Revenues: How Does LRLCY Make Money?

Twenty-One Day: LRLCY -14%, vs. S&P500 -8.5%; Underperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; over 90% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• LRLCY stock dropped 14% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8.5%
• A change of -14% or more over twenty-one trading days is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 14 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 14 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on all 14 of these occasions
• This points to a more than 90% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: LRLCY 1.9%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Outperformed market

(32% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• LRLCY stock gained 1.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.1%
• A change of 1.9% or more over ten trading days is a 32% likelihood event, which has occurred 803 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 803 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 431 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: LRLCY -4.6%, vs. S&P500 -2.6%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next five days)

• LRLCY stock lost 4.6% over a five-day trading period ending 5/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 2.6% over this period.
• A change of -4.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 102 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 102 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 60 occasions
• This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates