Share this @internewscast.com
A drop in Australia’s headline inflation has not eliminated the possibility of a February interest rate hike, according to some economists.
The annual consumer price index (CPI) dipped from 3.8 to 3.4 per cent in November, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data released on Wednesday.
That was lower than headline figure of 3.6 per cent economists had forecast.
But the RBA places greater emphasis on the trimmed mean or underlying measure of inflation, after removing volatile items, which remains too high.
Trimmed mean inflation fell from 3.3 per cent to 3.2 per cent after rising 0.3 per cent month to month. The figure is above the RBA’s two to three per cent target band, but is consistent with their November forecast.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is keeping a close eye on the upcoming December quarter inflation report, which is set to be released on January 28. This report is crucial as it arrives just days before the RBA’s board meeting scheduled for February 2-3.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver says the RBA will be concerned by stickier items like the cost of building a new home, which is “accelerating”.
“New dwelling inflation was up 2.8 per cent on a year ago, compared to 1.7 per cent in October on a year ago,” he told SBS News.
“So that’s still a red flag there with new dwelling construction prices, which are continuing to pick up pace, so that will concern the RBA.”

Economic analyst Holden noted that while market services prices have not increased, they remain stubbornly high at around 3 percent. This persistent inflationary pressure may lead the RBA to consider an interest rate hike, which Holden suggests is still a possibility.

Holden believes that the inflation data from the December quarter will serve as a more accurate indicator for the RBA’s decisions during their February meeting.

Richard Holden, Scientia Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, said the inflation data showed the cost of items still went up, but the growth had slowed slightly.
“I think it’s telling us that inflation is still too high,” he told SBS News.
“The RBA are going to have to do something to get it under control. And today’s figures don’t change that.”

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed his approval of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which exceeded economists’ expectations. He acknowledged the ongoing financial challenges facing Australians, yet described the CPI results as “very welcome and very encouraging.”

“It certainly could, and a lot of economists are suggesting that rates will need to go up. So if you thought that they were going to go up before this number, I wouldn’t change my mind,” he said.
Oliver, relieved by the drop, predicts a hold but admits “they’re not great numbers”.
“They’re still too high. The Reserve Bank will still be nervous. It keeps alive the prospect of a rate hike in February,” Oliver said.

He said the December quarter CPI figures will be a better predictor for the RBA’s February meeting.

A man wearing a black suit

Treasurer Jim Chalmers welcomes the CPI data, which was better than economists predicted. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said while he understood Australians were still feeling the pinch of competing costs, the CPI results were “very welcome and very encouraging”.

“We know that households are still under pressure and that’s why our responsible cost of living relief is so important,” he said in a statement.
“Inflation remains much lower than we inherited from the Coalition but still higher than we would like.”
Stephen Smith, partner at Deloitte Access Economics, highlighted that the new data comes with “wide margins of error”.
He said the RBA should be “careful and cautious, rather than impulsive”, arguing a cash rate increase would be “premature”.
“If the RBA feels it has no choice to hike rates, then it is a sad indictment on the failure of policymakers to address the root causes through reform.”
Following its decision, the central bank’s governor Michele Bullock said it was unlikely there would be further interest rate cuts “for the foreseeable future”.

— With additional reporting by the Australian Associated Press.

Share this @internewscast.com
You May Also Like
Prince Harry's court battle against British tabloids reaches final chapter

Prince Harry’s Legal Showdown with British Tabloids Nears Conclusion

As Prince Harry enters the courtroom once more, tens of millions of…

Heroic Teens Commended for Brave Response During Shark Incident at Sydney Harbour Beach

Heroic actions by three teenagers have likely saved the life of their…
A man was rescued from the Pillars in Mount Martha yesterday.

Urgent Call for Caution Following Trio of Cliff Rescues in Victoria

Lifesavers have issued a renewed safety reminder after three people were seriously…
Keir Starmer said 'no options are off the table' after dozens of Labour MPs wrote a letter calling for the UK to emulate Australia's ban on under-16s using sites and apps

Starmer Pledges Enhanced Protection for Children on Social Media Amid Calls for Under-16 Ban

Keir Starmer acknowledged the necessity for stronger measures to safeguard children on…
Trump ties failure to win Nobel Peace Prize to efforts to acquire Greenland

Trump Suggests Greenland Acquisition Attempt Cost Him Nobel Peace Prize

US President Donald Trump told Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre that…

PM Sets Bold Deadline for Bondi Reforms as Parliament Reconvenes

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has urged the Coalition to support the government’s…
China's birth rate plunges to lowest level since comunist revolution

China’s Birth Rate Hits Historic Low: A New Era of Demographic Challenges Begins

The official birth rate in China has plunged to its lowest level…

Single Mother Finds Independence Through a Passion-Turned-Profession

Is escaping from reality helping or harming us? In this episode of…

Breaking the Billionaire Boom: How a Wealth Tax Could Disrupt the Cycle of Growing Inequality

As the world’s billionaires grow richer by the day, a few dozen…
Police have been left "traumatised" after a 19-year-old Canadian woman was found dead and surrounded by 10 dingoes on the Queensland island of K'gari this morning.

Tragic Discovery: Woman Found Deceased Among Dingoes Sparks Investigation

In a harrowing discovery on the Queensland island of K’gari, police officers…

Tragedy on the Tracks: High-Speed Train Collision in Spain Claims 39 Lives and Leaves Dozens Injured

A high-speed train has derailed, jumped onto the track in the opposite…

Tragic Queensland Accident Claims Three Lives, Including Young Girl

A 12-year-old girl was among three people killed in a horror crash…