Ken Holland, a Hockey Hall of Famer and the current general manager of the Los Angeles Kings, is widely recognized for popularizing the notion that an NHL team’s position in the standings at U.S. Thanksgiving can often predict their playoff fate.
Since the NHL adopted the current wild-card playoff structure in the 2013-14 season, excluding the two pandemic-altered seasons, a notable 77% of teams in playoff positions by Thanksgiving have secured a spot in the postseason, according to research from ESPN.
Historically, each season has seen between three to five teams drop out of playoff contention by season’s end, making way for others to take their place. With this year’s standings particularly tight, we might witness even greater shifts than usual.
As the league pauses for Thanksgiving, it’s an ideal time to examine the current standings and consider their implications for the playoffs.
Given the uneven number of games played by each team, assessing standings based on points percentage offers a more equitable view.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 23 GP, 30 pts, .652
- Ottawa Senators – 23 GP, 28 pts, .609
- Boston Bruins – 25 GP, 28 pts, .560
Metropolitan Division
- New Jersey Devils – 23 GP, 31 pts, .674
- Carolina Hurricanes – 23 GP, 30 pts, .652
- Washington Capitals – 24 GP, 28 pts, .583
Wild Card
- New York Islanders – 24 GP, 28 pts, .583
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 22 GP, 27 pts, .614
In the Atlantic Division, this method would elevate the Montreal Canadiens to second place, boasting 27 points and a .614 points percentage. Meanwhile, this adjustment would see Ottawa drop to third, and Boston would find itself out of a wild-card position.
In the Atlantic Division, that would move the Montreal Canadiens into second place, with 27 points and a .614 points percentage. Ottawa would drop to third and Boston would move out of a wild-card spot.
The biggest news here is the absence of the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. Between their Cup hangover and a long list of injuries which includes captain Aleksander Barkov and sparkplug Matthew Tkachuk, the Panthers are out of the playoff picture, but only by two points. With their winning pedigree, don’t rule out the possibility of them getting back into the mix when they get healthy.
They’ve also done it before. In Paul Maurice’s first season behind Florida’s bench, the Panthers were one point out of a wild-card spot on Nov. 24, 2022 and even further back by points percentage. Then, they scrambled into the eighth seed before going on a run which ended against the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup final.
The noteworthy teams that are in the heat of the battle are the Penguins, Bruins and Flyers. All three are back in the mix under new coaches, with Pittsburgh’s Dan Muse and Boston’s Marco Sturm at the helm for the first time at the NHL level.
If there was ever a year where the predictive nature of U.S. Thanksgiving is not guaranteed, this could be it. Just five points separate the East’s second wild-card team, Pittsburgh, from the last-place Buffalo Sabres. With nearly 60 games to play and the Olympic break also set to wreak havoc on NHL rosters down the stretch for the first time since 2014, the chase remains wide open.
Western Conference
Central Division
- Colorado Avalanche – 23 GP, 39 pts, .848
- Dallas Stars – 24 GP, 34 pts, .708
- Minnesota Wild – 24 GP, 30 pts, .625
Pacific Division
- Anaheim Ducks – 23 GP, 29 pts, .630
- Vegas Golden Knights – 23 GP, 28 pts, .609
- Seattle Kraken – 23 GP, 28 pts, .609
Wild Card
- Los Angeles Kings – 23 GP, 28 pts, .609
- Utah Mammoth – 23 GP, 27 pts, .563
In the West, the standings remain the same whether it’s total points or points percentage.
The big story in the Western Conference is the early dominance of the Colorado Avalanche. With captain Gabriel Landeskog back as an everyday player after missing three full regular seasons due to injury and goalies Scott Wedgewood, Mackenzie Blackwood and Trent Miner combining for an NHL-best 2.09 goals against per game, Colorado is the one team that has separated itself from the rest of the pack in the early going.
Colorado’s 2024 Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon also holds a five-point lead in the NHL scoring race and his team is averaging an insane 4.09 goals per game while having lost only once in regulation time in 23 games to date.
In a season where no one is really dominating — the Avalanche are dominating.
New teams in the Western Conference mix include the Anaheim Ducks, who have established a fun-to-watch run-and-gun style under their new coach, Joel Quenneville after seven years outside the Western Conference playoff picture. The Seattle Kraken also appear to have taken strides under their new coach, Lane Lambert, and the Utah Mammoth are pushing for their first playoff spot in their second year — and their first post-season run since the Arizona Coyotes got into the 24-team qualifying round and beat the Nashville Predators in the 2020 playoff bubble in Edmonton.
The most notable name missing from the Western picture is the Edmonton Oilers, but we’ve seen this movie before. The two-time Stanley Cup finalists have been notorious slow starters — to the point where coach Jay Woodcroft was fired when the team started 3-9-1 in 2023-24, then bounced back to get within a goal of championship. Edmonton’s goaltending is suspect but the team has proven time and time again that what you see in November isn’t what you’ll see in April.
Battling through the absence of 2025 Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck after arthroscopic knee surgery, the 2025 Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets are also currently on the wrong side of the playoff cutline.
The Western Conference playoff race is a little more spread out than the East. The Mammoth hold sole possession of the second wild-card spot and four teams are within three points: the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Oilers and Jets. It’ll be a tougher task for the Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, Calgary Flames or Nashville Predators to work their way back into the mix. With so few teams out of contention, trade rumors have already hit gale force around all four those squads.
As the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday continues, the NHL schedule resumes Friday with 15 games staggered throughout the day. The action begins with the Tampa Bay Lightning visiting their former general manager, Steve Yzerman, and his Detroit Red Wings at noon E.T. at Little Caesars Arena.
