Have you ever said something bold, and then some really smart person elsewhere says the same thing? For some time now, I have been saying Too Big to Fail Banks will lose to fintech.

I’ve argued the giants are Too Big to Care, pocketing rising interest rates for themselves and neglecting startups and small businesses, the backbone of the U.S. economy; and that banks can’t or won’t adopt new technology because they are too entrenched in legacy offline processes, a relationship-driven approach built over a century with a small group of equally large corporations.

Startups want the opposite: a seamless, digital, and personalized experience with the same high-end and high-yield services that banks reserve for their largest corporate customers. This same dynamic allowed fintechs to win the credit card market for startups and small business customers over the last 5 years. History is now repeating itself for banks across treasury, lending, and spending management.

Now comes a new whitepaper from McKinsey & Co., “The Future of Banks: A $20 Trillion Breakup Opportunity.” It takes a sobering view of the banking industry and calls for a “daunting reorganization, or breakup” of the Too Big to Fail banks if they are to withstand new challenges from fintech and Big Tech.

The McKinsey paper argues that “economic forces and technology have ended the run of the universal-bank model.” It identifies five areas where banks must utterly transform themselves: everyday banking, investment advice, complex financing, mass wholesale intermediation for corporate clientele, and Banking as a Service (BaaS).

Reality check: the chances are slim that big banks will be able to transform themselves in even one of these five areas, much less all five. The giants have proven to be incapable of adopting new technology and delivering an app-based, customer-centric experience, and they’ve had 20 years to figure it out.

Breakup opportunity is right: breaking themselves up may be the best chance they have to survive. Some of the biggest breakups came at the behest of companies themselves rather than government trustbusters. The old AT&T split into computers, long-distance, and equipment-making in the 1990s, and now General Electric has divided itself into separate firms for healthcare, aircraft, and renewable energy.

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But the Big Banks? You won’t see any of them do this willingly.

The breakup article was published in the December McKinsey Quarterly, written by four partners on three continents: It rattles off a litany of industry ills. Sample: “Key measures for banks are at a historical low point. The sector’s price-to-book value has fallen to less than one-third the value of other industries. … margins are shrinking—down more than 25% in the past 15 years.” They will likely continue to fall over the next decade.

Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase also worries about the banks’ decline, as I wrote in a previous column. Banks’ share of mortgages plunged from 91% over a decade ago, to just 32% now; their share of the leveraged loan market is down to just 13%, from 46% over 20 years.

The McKinsey partners note that other businesses, pound for pound, are now valued at more than three times the value of banks. “This means that global investors are voting with trillions of dollars against the future profitability and sustainability of the existing business model of universal banks,” they write.

They always say to follow the money, and the money is flowing away from Too Big to Fail banks into Small Enough to Innovate fintechs. McKinsey & Co. counts 274 unicorns, in fintech, up from 25 in 2017, with a total combined value topping $1 trillion.

Between the lines, the McKinsey paper is a jolt of fear aimed at persuading banks to hire the firm to help them innovate (I know a sales document when I see one, having started my career at Boston Consulting Group, an archrival of McKinsey & Co.).

The flaw of this is that the best innovation comes from the outside, rather than from within, big and satisfied incumbents that are focused on protecting their legacy businesses. Therein lies the Innovator’s Dilemma, as Harvard’s Clayton Christensen put it in 1997, and it rings true today.

The banking industry now manages $370 trillion in worldwide assets, and McKinsey projects this could grow to half a trillion dollars in a decade. But the real advances in serving startups and small businesses will come from innovators, outside the establishment, leveraging AI, Big Data, and powerful, user-friendly apps to take share from the big banks.