Tires stands out as a fairly unusual Netflix production, given its subject matter, format and scale. Season 2 of Tires has just hit Netflix as of this past week, and viewers are likely wondering if it’s going to land a season 3.

Tires was not auto-renewed for season 3 when season 2 was greenlit. And in the wake of it airing now, it has not been confirmed it’s getting a third season. However, I’ve been doing this long enough to make educated estimates, and in this case, Tires season 3 is almost a sure thing. We’ll go through the five pillars of Netflix renewal below:

Viewership: Tires season 2 debuted at #2 on Netflix’s top 10 list in the US. Likely the only reason it’s not #1 is because it’s airing alongside the third season of Ginny and Georgia, which fans have been waiting an astonishing 2.5 years for. We don’t have data past the top 10 list yet, but we know the show did extremely well in season 1, where it was second only to the smash-hit Bridgerton in streaming rankings in May 2024.

Cost: Tires absolutely has to be one of the lowest-cost scripted series on Netflix. In addition to not having any big names outside of Shane Gillis (and whether you consider him a big name is debatable), the production value needed here in terms of location shooting and obviously zero VFX is incredibly low. In the context of Netflix’s production pipeline, this is pocket change. It’s also true that because of that, Tires can be released with year-long breaks, as is the case between seasons 1 and 2.

Reception: Season 2 of Tires jumped a full 30% from season, with critics going from a 40% score to a 71% score in season 2. But more importantly for Netflix, and what feeds into viewership, this past season has a 94% audience score, indicating that it’s a crowd favorite. I think these kind of scores play into Netflix renewal consideration the least, as they simply want high viewership for low cost. But it doesn’t hurt.

Stickiness: This is the one point of data we have zero information about, whether or not viewers make it to the end of a season or not, which is a huge factor in seasonal renewal. But Tires? It’s 10 episodes where most of them are barely 20 minutes long, an easy binge watch if there ever was one.

So, I’m going all it. 100% chance that Tires is renewed for season 3, short of the entire cast just getting sick of it and walking away (fat chance). It may be a little bit of time until Netflix makes this official (everyone should be asking for raises at this point), but I am certain it will happen soon enough.

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Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.