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It may seem as if Peloton — one of the biggest stock-market winners in the early part of the coronavirus pandemic — has only recently crashed and burned. But the stock’s price actually peaked in January 2021 and had fallen 79% through the end of 2021.

Peloton Interactive Inc. PTON is very much in-play. See here:

During the earlier stages of the pandemic, investors seeing stocks such as Zoom Video Communications Inc. ZM and DocuSign Inc. DOCU rocketing during lockdowns realized they couldn’t go up forever. But they also didn’t know how long the initial lockdown period would last, and they might have been afraid of missing out. Investors or traders might have scored tidy profits if they jumped on the bandwagon and got off in time.

Getting back to Peloton, the share price price more than doubled during the first half of 2020. So that sets the stage for a screen of stocks that have gone through pandemic boom-and-bust cycles.

Pandemic winners transform into losers

The screen begins with the Russell 1000 Index RUI, which includes the largest American companies that are publicly traded, weighted by market capitalization.

Among the Russell 1000, 20 stocks doubled in price, at least, from the end of 2019 through June 20, 2020. Among those, 15 were down at least 50% from their pandemic intraday highs through the close on Feb. 7, 2022.

Here they are, sorted by how much they have declined from those highs:

Company Ticker Decline from pandemic high Price increase – Dec. 31, 2019, through pandemic high Date of intraday high since Dec. 31, 2019 Price increase – Dec. 31, 2019, through June 30, 2020
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON -83% 502% 01/14/2021 103%
Fastly Inc. Class A FSLY -80% 580% 10/13/2020 324%
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM -76% 765% 10/19/2020 273%
Teladoc Health Inc. TDOC -76% 268% 02/16/2021 128%
Plug Power Inc. PLUG -72% 2289% 01/26/2021 160%
Novavax Inc. NVAX -71% 8234% 02/09/2021 1994%
DraftKings Inc. Class A DKNG -71% 595% 03/22/2021 211%
Quidel Corp. QDEL -69% 309% 08/06/2020 198%
Moderna Inc. MRNA -68% 2443% 08/10/2021 228%
Wix.com Ltd. WIX -67% 196% 02/19/2021 109%
DocuSign Inc. DOCU -62% 325% 08/10/2021 132%
Wayfair Inc. Class A W -62% 308% 01/14/2021 119%
Twilio Inc. Class A TWLO -57% 365% 02/18/2021 123%
Etsy Inc. ETSY -56% 595% 11/26/2021 140%
Cloudflare Inc. Class A NET -52% 1199% 11/18/2021 111%
Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

You should also read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

As to whether you should consider buying any of these stocks in hopes of a rebound, it might be best to look beyond trading momentum and buzz, and turn toward fundamentals. You might consider likely the companies are to continue or resume a steady growth path leading to consistent profits.

Read: Netflix vs. Facebook: Which is the better stock after those shocking earnings?

Leaving the group in the same order, here are projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023. We’re using calendar-year estimates because some of the companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar. Since we’re still in earnings season, the figures for 2021 are also consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet:

Company Ticker Two-year estimated sales CAGR Estimated sales – 2021 ($mil) Estimated sales – 2022 ($mil) Estimated sales – 2023 ($mil)
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON 15.6% $4,062 $4,534 $5,426
Fastly Inc. Class A FSLY 19.6% $349 $417 $499
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM 17.8% $3,960 $4,677 $5,492
Teladoc Health Inc. TDOC 25.4% $2,025 $2,575 $3,181
Plug Power Inc. PLUG 66.3% $497 $906 $1,375
Novavax Inc. NVAX 33.7% $1,365 $4,942 $2,441
DraftKings Inc. Class A DKNG 41.5% $1,269 $1,901 $2,542
Quidel Corp. QDEL -31.8% $1,574 $985 $733
Moderna Inc. MRNA -16.1% $18,020 $21,499 $12,694
Wix.com Ltd. WIX 20.9% $1,273 $1,529 $1,859
DocuSign Inc. DOCU 25.0% $2,034 $2,564 $3,175
Wayfair Inc. Class A W 14.0% $13,766 $15,166 $17,885
Twilio Inc. Class A TWLO 30.8% $2,767 $3,660 $4,731
Etsy Inc. ETSY 20.4% $2,297 $2,764 $3,331
Cloudflare Inc. Class A NET 35.2% $648 $891 $1,183
Source: FactSet

Aside from Quidel Corp. QDEL and Moderna Inc. MRNA, the companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth rates for sales over the next two years.

Most of the companies weren’t profitable during 2021. Here are consensus estimates for earnings per share through calendar 2023:

Company Ticker Estimated EPS – 2021 Estimated EPS – 2022 Estimated EPS – 2023
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON -$1.77 -$1.97 -$0.76
Fastly Inc. Class A FSLY -$0.55 -$0.49 -$0.29
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM $4.72 $4.41 $4.76
Teladoc Health Inc. TDOC -$3.24 -$1.82 -$1.26
Plug Power Inc. PLUG -$0.57 -$0.26 -$0.06
Novavax Inc. NVAX -$12.56 $29.31 $13.68
DraftKings Inc. Class A DKNG -$3.61 -$2.45 -$1.62
Quidel Corp. QDEL $16.12 $8.73 $3.89
Moderna Inc. MRNA $27.27 $28.13 $13.04
Wix.com Ltd. WIX -$1.39 -$1.43 -$0.39
DocuSign Inc. DOCU $1.89 $2.14 $2.72
Wayfair Inc. Class A W $2.58 $1.60 $4.28
Twilio Inc. Class A TWLO -$0.25 -$0.03 $0.32
Etsy Inc. ETSY $3.03 $3.48 $4.64
Cloudflare Inc. Class A NET -$0.05 $0.02 $0.10
Source: FactSet

Companies on the list expected to swing to calendar-year profitability this year or in 2023 include Novavax Inc. NVAX, Twilio Inc. TWLO and Cloudflare Inc. NET.

Here’s a summary of ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:

Company Ticker Share “buy” ratings Share  neutral ratings Share “sell” ratings Closing price – Feb. 7 Cons. price target Implied 12-month upside potential
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON 52% 42% 6% $29.75 $46.54 56%
Fastly Inc. Class A FSLY 8% 77% 15% $26.91 $37.22 38%
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM 50% 47% 3% $141.44 $265.83 88%
Teladoc Health Inc. TDOC 57% 40% 3% $74.53 $129.48 74%
Plug Power Inc. PLUG 76% 24% 0% $21.46 $43.33 102%
Novavax Inc. NVAX 71% 29% 0% $94.80 $250.00 164%
DraftKings Inc. Class A DKNG 59% 38% 3% $21.50 $50.41 134%
Quidel Corp. QDEL 75% 25% 0% $96.40 $171.33 78%
Moderna Inc. MRNA 43% 52% 5% $160.27 $272.73 70%
Wix.com Ltd. WIX 71% 29% 0% $119.38 $228.50 91%
DocuSign Inc. DOCU 54% 41% 5% $118.41 $195.44 65%
Wayfair Inc. Class A W 34% 50% 16% $141.24 $244.76 73%
Twilio Inc. Class A TWLO 94% 6% 0% $195.78 $358.46 83%
Etsy Inc. ETSY 67% 28% 5% $135.66 $239.83 77%
Cloudflare Inc. Class A NET 48% 47% 5% $107.10 $156.94 47%
Source: FactSet

More than half of the analysts rate Peloton a “buy” or the equivalent. Twilio is the analysts’ favorite, with 94% favorable ratings.

Don’t miss: These companies in the S&P 500 are winning this earnings season using 4 critical measures

Source: This post first appeared on http://marketwatch.com/

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