Deep Dive: These 16 chipmakers are expected to buck a dim industry trend

Read: Why semiconductor stocks are ‘almost uninvestable’ despite record earnings amid a global shortage

In the article above, Wallace Witkowski explains how investors and analysts think ahead and react quickly. During a year in which record profits for the semiconductor industry are expected, the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, -3.54%, which tracks the industry benchmark PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, -3.44%, was down 23% for 2022 through April 25, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, -1.84% was down 9.9% and the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, -2.90%, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index NDX, -2.91%, was down 17.2%.

Loss of confidence in semiconductor stocks

For 2022, the SOXX group (30 stocks of chipmakers and manufacturers of related equipment) weighted by market capitalization is expected to increase sales by 18% and earnings per share by a whopping 42% from 2021 levels, based on consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.

But 2021, fueled by government stimulus, is already ancient history. What if we look at estimates with 2022 as the base? Here are weighted aggregate sales per share and EPS estimates for SOXX, QQQ and SPY through 2024, with expected compound annual growth rates (CAGRs).

First, sales per share:

Many companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar. Estimates in this article are all for calendar years.

Now earnings per share:

For sales, SOXX is expected to be in the middle of the three, with a CAGR of 8.4% from 2022 through 2024. That’s a far cry from the 18% sales growth expected for 2022. But for EPS, the picture is worse, with an expected two-year CAGR of 7.1% ranking third, and comparing very unfavorably to the 42% EPS growth expected for 2022.

Companies that are potential exceptions

For a broad screen of semiconductor stocks listed in the U.S., we began with the SOXX 30 and then added all companies outside of SOXX in the S&P Composite 1500 Index SP1500, -1.68% (made up of the S&P 500 SPX, -1.80%,  the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index MID, -1.72%  and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index MID, -1.72% ) in the “Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment” Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) industry group.

This gave us an initial screening group of 58 stocks.

These 16 companies are expected to show double-digit sales CAGR from 2022 through 2024.

First, here are the the group’s expected sales CAGR numbers, with sales estimates in millions:

And now the group’s expected EPS CAGR:

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

You should also read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

It’s notable that a quarter of the companies on the list are focused on solar power generation, including First Solar Inc. FSLR, -0.54%, Enphase Energy Inc. ENPH, -3.19%, SolarEdge Technologies Inc. SEDG, -1.66% and SunPower Corp. SPWR, -2.49%. Here’s a look at the transition of power plants to solar generation with battery storage that is already under way.

For investors with very long-term horizons, SOXX may be the best way to participate in the semiconductor industry. For others with a more tactical approach, the screen above may serve as a starting point for further research.

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