Injury-Plagued Pacers Struggle to Maintain Winning Style

MEMPHIS – As media day approached, the Indiana Pacers’ strategy was a hot topic of discussion. With star guard Tyrese Haliburton sidelined due to the sole significant injury on the roster, questions arose regarding how the team would navigate the upcoming season without their key player.

“I believe we need to maintain our tempo and continue to share the ball,” expressed forward Obi Toppin at the event. “Our success last year stemmed from everyone’s involvement and enjoyment on the court. We’ve established a culture, and we aim to preserve it.”

Despite missing their offensive leader, Indiana aimed to sustain their established style of play that has contributed to their postseason achievements in recent years. Players have credited this approach and system as pivotal to their success, suggesting there shouldn’t be any drastic changes.

However, unforeseen circumstances forced changes upon them. During the preseason, injuries sidelined T.J. McConnell and Quenton Jackson. Rookie point guard Kam Jones was also not in good health. Andrew Nembhard, stepping in as the starting point guard in Haliburton’s absence, left the season opener early with a shoulder issue.

The initial strategy was to maintain the same style with alternate point guards. Yet, after just one game, they found themselves without any available. RayJ Dennis, a player on a two-way contract entering his second season, was the lone healthy option for the lead guard position.

How did the Pacers hope they could manage their injuries?

As a result, the team had to depend on other players to step up in the point guard role. Despite this, many believe the system itself compensates for the lack of a traditional point guard. “The system is the point guard,” remarked guard Ben Sheppard, who has occasionally taken on the lead ball handler role. “We have numerous players capable of bringing the ball up. So, I’m ready to lead the offense whenever necessary.”

The team was forced to rely on other players as fill-in ones. But, in the eyes of many, the system could make up for the positional loss. “The system is the point guard,” guard Ben Sheppard, who has filled in as the lead ball handler a few times, said. “We’ve got a lot of pieces that can bring the ball up. So I’m just out there and when I need to lead the offense, I’ll lead the offense.”

Taelon Peter, an off-ball guard his whole life who has also filled in as a point guard this season, agreed with Sheppard. “I think it’s not really me at point guard. I think I’m just the guy that gets the ball from point A to point B,” he said. “Once it gets out of my hands, there is no point guard. We just kind of run our offense.”

Peter acknowledged that when there are play calls, it’s on the fill-in point guard to get things started with the first or second pass. After that, it’s the action-to-action style the Pacers have fostered for years that keeps things going. That’s the system they hope can function as the point guard.

That system has been building for years. They’ve wanted to control the pace dating back prior to the acquisition of Haliburton. They want to lead the league in passes. It’s a ball-movement heavy play style that hopes to never bog down. Eventually, a good shot arises.

They’re still generating healthy attempts from the field. Indiana ranks ninth in shots in the paint per game and is getting up the third-most above the break threes per game. They’re happy with those shots. Indiana ranks second in the frequency of shots the NBA classifies as open and takes the seventh-fewest tightly-contested looks per night. In theory, their system seems to be working.

In practice, it’s not. That’s only half the battle. The Pacers are second-to-last in offensive rating right now, only ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. Indiana is dead last in both effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, and by multiple percentage points. They’re generating good looks but making nothing.

Head coach Rick Carlisle believes that his team is due for a great shotmaking night. He’s right, the numbers say. It hasn’t happened yet, though, and they’re 1-7 as a result.

Is point guard play causing that gap? The Pacers have been relying on their system, and many of the process-related numbers say that the system is mostly working as intended. The results haven’t been there, though, and some of the team’s best moments this season have come when either Bennedict Mathurin (who is currently also injured) or All-Star forward Pascal Siakam make individual plays that could happen within almost any context.

That’s not to say the Pacers’ system is bad or doesn’t fit their team – they just played in the NBA Finals six months ago. But the wide gap between what the stats say should be happening and what is happening shows just how much injuries have impacted the team’s ability to rely on its system. Everyone has to step up.

“It’s completely our system. I think our system gives not just me, but everybody, freedom to kind of just play with pace [and] be who you are as a player,” Jackson said earlier this week. He was terrific in the Pacers only win of the season so far.

Missing point guards has hurt the Pacers

At the same time, though, Carlisle acknowledges how challenging it can be to execute without guys who can make plays. “Without playmakers, the game is much more difficult,” he said after a loss in Memphis earlier this season.

The Pacers’ absolute easiest shots are gone. They’re 15th in shots per game in the restricted area, a slight drop in ranking from last season. They attempt the fourth-fewest corner threes per game so far this season – they weren’t even in the bottom 10 last year.

Without many capable organizers and rim attackers, the Pacers rely on less-accurate shooters taking slightly more difficult shots. The differences are obviously noticeable on just one possession, but the slightly-less open and slightly-farther from the basket shots add up in expected value over time. The blue and gold are still well below the level of shot making they should be at, but not having point guards available does impact the team even if their system is designed to be what actually generates good offense.

McConnell, Jones, and Haliburton haven’t played all season. Nembhard was only available for the first half of the first game – though he has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s action. Jackson has been in and out of the lineup due to hamstring injuries, and he’s a combo guard anyway.

Dennis has been fighting a back issue. Mathurin, the team’s best perimeter player at breaking a defense regardless of style this season, got hurt after seven quarters. Toppin, a premier play finisher from both right at the cup and the corners – two areas the Pacers are lacking from right now – is out for months.

Other players have missed time, too, and the Pacers have already made several transactions to keep up with their health situation. “It’s almost laughable. It’s not funny, but it’s just a tough situation,” Siakam said of the numerous injuries. “We come into the season and guys get injured. Things that are out of our control… It’s life. So we’ve just got to move on and continue to find ways to be positive and get wins.”

The team has remained positive because they’ve shown fight, they’ve had some success in their system, and they’ve been close (six out of eight games have reached clutch time) to winning more than they actually have. Relying on the style they know has almost been enough for a better record.

But injuries have made that sentence contain an almost. Without point guard talent or depth, the Pacers are 1-7 and will keep looking for answers, or recovery. “We’ve just got to focus on what we have and not what we don’t have,” Carlisle said. “We’ve all got to be solution-based thinkers.”