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It’s uncommon for a Welsh parliamentary by-election to send ripples beyond its usual sphere, yet Labour’s overwhelming loss to Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly has done just that. This constituency, a long-standing Labour bastion in a region traditionally loyal to the party, experienced a political upheaval that can rightly be termed seismic.

Losing a seat that Labour has held since the Welsh Senedd’s inception in 1999—and consistently secured in Westminster elections for a century—represents a significant setback for a ruling party that achieved a sweeping UK victory merely 15 months prior. This event underscores the growing disillusionment with Britain’s conventional political powers, leading to a fracturing of the political landscape and emboldening opponents on both the left and right.

It’s important to note that by-elections often serve as a platform for protest voting, occasionally producing unexpected and exaggerated outcomes. However, the Caerphilly outcome is indicative of a wider erosion of the political center in Britain, a trend mirrored across Europe. This shift stemmed from a desire for change first seen in the 2016 Brexit vote. Though Brexit promised national transformation, it instead inflicted economic damage. The tumultuous tenures of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, combined with a cost of living crisis and ongoing public sector struggles, have only intensified this sentiment.

Labour returned to power last year on a “Change” manifesto, yet its failure to enhance living standards or public services, coupled with strategic errors alienating its left-leaning base, has led to a significant drop in support. This recent result signals potential disaster in the forthcoming Wales-wide Senedd elections in May, threatening to dismantle Labour’s decades-long dominance in the region. This echoes its decline in Scotland, where the party was overtaken by the Scottish National Party in 2007.

Plaid Cymru’s triumph in Caerphilly reflects not so much a surge in Welsh nationalism as a shift of disenchanted left-leaning voters from Labour to Plaid, mirroring trends seen with the Liberal Democrats and Greens in England. Moreover, Plaid’s success was likely bolstered by tactical voting from progressive voters intent on preventing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, especially after a pre-election poll suggested Reform was leading.

If a realignment of UK politics is under way on the left, however, that is even more true on the right. Though the Conservatives have historically struggled in Wales, their 2 per cent vote in Caerphilly was their worst ever by-election performance. Reform did not win the seat despite ploughing significant resources into its campaign. But its 36 per cent share showed it is capable of supplanting the Tories to become the main party of the right well beyond its English heartlands. The result positions it as a serious contender, compounding Labour’s misery, in May’s Senedd election.

Extrapolating from recent poll results to a general election that is still four years away would be unwise. If today’s political fracturing continues, though, it will pose a severe test for a first-past-the-post electoral system that was designed for a two-party, not multi-party, Britain.

The most serious questions posed by Caerphilly, however, are for the Labour government. Its rising opponents have crafted positive and, for their supporters, hopeful narratives of how they would do things differently. Though Labour has grimly set about tackling the long-term problems Britain faces, hope and positivity are in short supply. Unless it can find some soon, its leader Sir Keir Starmer, and the party itself, may not get a chance to finish the job.