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Mark Carney has won Canada’s election, the national broadcaster has projected, but his parliamentary majority hangs in the balance after a campaign dominated by the country’s relationship with the US under Donald Trump.

Carney’s party was on track to win the largest number of seats and the right to form a government as polls closed across much of the country, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. 

However, whether he can command a parliamentary majority or will have to depend on other parties to govern in a minority administration remained too close to call on Monday night. 

The result marks a stunning recovery for the Liberals, who were on course to lose power until Justin Trudeau, prime minister for almost a decade, quit as party leader earlier this year and was replaced by Carney in March.

His victory will also be greeted around the world as a sign that centrist, internationalist politics can succeed electorally in the age of Trump.

Carney ran Canada’s central bank during the financial crisis and the Bank of England after Brexit — and cited his experience as preparation for handling the economic turmoil caused by the US president.

The former Goldman Sachs and Brookfield executive, who entered electoral politics for the first time in January, must now manage critical negotiations with Canada’s largest trading partner, and rally the global effort to limit the damage from Trump’s trade policy.

The Liberals capitalised on a patriotic surge in the face of Trump’s tariffs on Canada and taunts about it becoming the US’s “51st state”, as Carney made defiance of Trump a campaign theme.

“This is Canada — and we decide what we do here,” the prime minister said in his closing message to the country ahead of Monday’s vote.

As Trump’s tariffs became the campaign’s central issue, Carney told voters that Canada’s old relationship with the US was “over” and vowed to enter a “broad renegotiation” of the trade deal between the countries.

Poilievre, who led in polls for several years until Trudeau quit and the US president stepped up his attacks on Canada, struggled in recent weeks to shake Liberal efforts to paint him as a Maga populist who would be unable to confront the US president.

The New Democratic Party, which had supported Trudeau’s minority government in parliament, was poised to suffer significant losses, as voters moved to the two main parties.