Elon Musk’s Starlink has been expanding its reach in the airline connectivity market. According to a new report by London-based Valour Consultancy, which closely tracks competition in in-flight entertainment and connectivity services, Starlink could connect over 10,000 aircraft by the end of 2034.

The company’s low-earth orbit in-flight connectivity service is installed on a few hundred aircraft but has gained large contracts, the largest so far being with United Airlines which operates a fleet of over 1,000 planes and announced an accelerated timeline for deployment starting this year.

Starlink’s Large High-Bandwith LEO Constellation Offers Coverage Airlines Need

Musk’s satellite connectivity company is the first high-bandwidth LEO satellite communications provider to build a large constellation of over 7,000 small satellites located at an altitude of 342 miles. On Tuesday, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launched 28 Starlink satellites from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. It was the third Falcon 9 launch delivering Starlink satellites in less than a week, with another 28 satellites launched on May 1 and 29 satellites launched on Sunday, May 4. The low-earth orbit ensures low latency, meaning airline passengers experience connections comparable to service on the ground. This large Starlink LEO constellation offers coverage airlines need on global routes to avoid service interruptions.

By venturing into in-flight connectivity, Starlink has taken on established service providers, including Viasat, Intelsat, and Panasonic Avionics. Many of these companies offer geostationary satellite connections, typically at an altitude of over 22,000 miles. Some offer a combination of GEO, LEO and high-earth orbit satellite coverage built on smaller constellations. Other providers offer connectivity services as part of a digital in-flight entertainment package, bundled with other services, but Starlink has gained some ground focusing only on connectivity.

The Number Of Airlines Adopting Starlink Have Grown

Flexjet, JSX and Hawaiian Airlines were the first to take Starlink service live onboard. The company also earned early commitments from airBaltic in Latvia and ZIPAIR in Japan. A large contract with Qatar Airways followed in 2023. Starlink service is now operating on around 100 aircraft. More recent wins with United Airlines, WestJet, SAS Scandinavian Airlines, and Air France mean Starlink connections will soon be available on over 2,000 planes. Industry reports suggest that Emirates will soon announce that it will also install Starlink connectivity services on its fleet.

The company also offers rapid installation for its new customers to keep momentum going on airline adoption.

“The antenna can be installed in 8-10 hours, far quicker than industry norms, and the satellite operator is ahead of schedule with many of its fleetwide deployments such as for United Airlines and Qatar Airways,” Valour Consultancy reports.

Starlink has gained Special Type Certificates from regulators to install its antennas on the Boeing 737-800, Airbus A220, and Embraer E175. It is also expected to gain STCs for the Airbus A320 later this year.

“Starlink’s success in beating rival LEO networks to market has given the satellite operator a huge opportunity to take advantage of a vast addressable market of aircraft,” said Senior Analyst, David Whelan of Valour Consultancy. “The performance of the network has so far been extremely impressive, bringing a genuinely excellent service to passengers.”

There’s Still Room For Competition

Other multi-orbit services are also entering the market. Eutelsat OneWeb’s LEO network partnered with Intelsat and launched on Air Canada this April. Its certified antenna was installed on 100 aircraft. Eutelsat offers a multi-orbit solution composed of 654 LEO and 35 GEO satellites. The company has reported a backlog of 1,000 aircraft pending installation.

“There will certainly be a role in the market for multi-orbit services, particularly for airlines which operate routes which Starlink may find difficult to serve because of regulatory challenges,” Whelan said.

Even so, Valour Consultancy expects Starlink to gain a 39% market share with installations on over 7,000 commercial airline aircraft by 2034. The company is also expected to grow more gradually in the business aviation market, with installations on over 3,000 private jets by 2034.