Pfizer Expects Covid Vaccine And Pill Revenues Will Fall 60% In 2023

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Topline

Pfizer stock slumped Tuesday as the pharmaceutical giant said it expects sales for its Covid-19 vaccine and oral treatment to decline significantly this year, as investors digest a shifting reality for Pfizer with Covid cases and hospitalizations stabilizing and government subsidization of the shots drying up.

Pfizer executives including CEO Albert Bourla, second from right, ring the bell at the New York … [+] Stock Exchange in 2019.

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Key Facts

Pfizer reported $1.14 earnings per share and $24.3 billion in total revenue over the final three months of 2022, largely beating consensus analyst estimates, but far more pressing to investors was Pfizer’s year-ahead guidance.

The company said it projects revenue this year will slip about 30% to between $67 billion and $71 billion, with annual revenues for its Covid vaccine and its Paxlovid pill forecasted to fall roughly 60% to $21.5 billion in 2023.

Notably, Pfizer said it expects demand for its Covid shot to drop 29% to about 65 million doses in 2023, as the U.S. federal government plans to stop funding the shot as it prepares to end the three-year public health emergency this spring.

Shares of Pfizer dipped 1.8% in early trading, while shares of its Covid vaccine rival Moderna slipped 3.1%.

Key Background

Pfizer has long warned about easing demand for its Covid treatments as the U.S. apparently emerges from the worst of the pandemic. UBS analysts led by Colin Bristow downgraded Pfizer stock to neutral last week, largely citing an expected decline in sales for the Covid treatments, cutting 2023 Covid revenue estimates nearly in half from $34.5 billion to $19.4 billion. Pfizer said in October it will hike the cost per Covid vaccine dose to between $110 and $130.

Big Number

27%. That’s how much Pfizer stock is down from its December 2021 peak, worse than the S&P 500’s 13% decline but far less severe than Moderna’s 41% slide during the period.