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Karol Nawrocki, a historian affiliated with the nationalist opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, was edging closer to victory in Poland’s presidential run-off after a final exit poll indicated a slender lead over his centre-right rival.

The late Ipsos exit poll showed Nawrocki securing 51 per cent of the votes compared to 49 per cent for pro-EU candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw representing Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party. This poll followed an earlier one where Trzaskowski had a narrow lead.

If Nawrocki’s victory on Sunday is confirmed by the final results, it could potentially derail Tusk’s reform agenda and lessen Poland’s influence within the EU, as well as its firm support of Ukraine in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, another PiS representative, has used his veto power to impede Tusk’s planned judicial reform and other initiatives since Tusk’s coalition defeated PiS in 2023.

It would also be a rare win for Donald Trump’s Maga movement abroad, following election defeats for rightwing politicians aligned with the US president in Canada, Australia and Romania. On a visit to Poland last Tuesday, US homeland security secretary Kristi Noem urged voters to “elect the right leader”, describing Trzaskowski as “an absolute train wreck”.

The second late exit poll, released just after 1am Warsaw time on Monday, appeared to point towards a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the two candidates.

After the first exit poll gave Trzaskowski a lead of just over half a percentage point, Tusk’s candidate declared an early victory in an “incredibly close” run-off. He promised to be “the president of all Poles” and work to mend the deep faultlines in Polish society highlighted by the election. 

But far from conceding defeat, Nawrocki told his supporters that the difference in the first exit poll was “so minimal” that Poland would start Monday with him as president.

“We have to win tonight and we know that we will,” he added.

Nawrocki said on Sunday night that he had campaigned in unfavourable circumstances including PiS funding cuts, while Duda and other senior PiS politicians had warned that Tusk could manipulate the presidential vote.

Jarosław Kaczyński — the PiS founder and long-standing Tusk nemesis who handpicked Nawrocki as a little-known PiS outsider — also forecast late on Sunday that his candidate would win. Kaczyński told supporters that Nawrocki had survived a “Niagara of lies” during a campaign when the political newcomer brushed off several personal scandals, including alleged ties to criminals. He denied all accusations as politically motivated.

“The narrower the margin in the final results, the more probable the scenario of a contested result,” said Adam Gendźwiłł, political science professor at Warsaw university.

Turnout was estimated by Ipsos at 72.8 per cent, which would be the highest for a presidential election but 2 percentage points short of the record participation in the 2023 parliamentary elections that brought Tusk back to power and ended eight years of PiS rule.

The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Ahead of Sunday’s vote, Tusk had warned voters that Nawrocki could not only block reforms but also undermine Poland’s role in the EU amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. Nawrocki pledged to thwart Kyiv’s bid to join Nato, which Tusk has denounced as an act of treason.

Still, Tusk and Trzaskowski have said that they would not allow Polish troops into Ukraine as part of an international peacekeeping mission should Kyiv and Moscow agree to a truce.