The festive season often brings with it a sense of joy and celebration. However, this year, many Americans are finding that the cost of holiday meals is taking a significant bite out of their budgets, according to recent reports by Food and Water Watch and Groundwork Collaborative. Despite assurances from the Trump Administration about the robustness of the economy, everyday Americans are feeling the pinch of escalating prices and are cutting back on holiday spending.
Polling by Data for Progress reveals that nearly two-thirds of Americans are anxious about the rising costs associated with the holidays, with 37 percent indicating plans to reduce their purchases. Many are responding by buying less, downsizing their gatherings, or limiting travel. Notably, more than half of voters attribute the spike in prices to the economic policies enacted under President Trump.
Since the beginning of Trump’s presidency, grocery prices have surged by more than 3 percent. This year, popular holiday staples have seen substantial price increases compared to last year: onions have shot up by 56 percent, spiral hams by 49 percent, cranberry sauce by 22 percent, and creamed corn by 21 percent. Canned fruits and vegetables have risen by 5 percent, with tariffs on steel hiking the costs of canning for the majority of goods dependent on imported steel. Domestic steel producers have also raised prices, relieved from the competitive pricing pressures of imports. Additionally, the cost of aluminum foil has soared by 40 percent due to tariff-driven input price hikes.
According to Groundwork Collaborative, using NIQ data, a full meal is up almost 10% compared to 2024, more than three times the overall rate of inflation.
In a similar investigation, Food & Water Watch analyzed data from the Consumer Price Index, showing that from January to September 2025, prices for holiday essentials have surged well beyond the inflation rate of 2.2 percent. This includes increases in turkey (3%), bread and crackers (3.9%), canned fruits (4.5%), canned vegetables like sweet potatoes and green beans (5%), and fresh potatoes (7.3%).
Amanda Starbuck, the Research Director at Food & Water Watch, pointedly remarked, “Trump promised lower food prices, but has done nothing to make it happen.”
The cost of ham has nearly doubled this year, and beef roasts have climbed by almost 20 percent over the previous year. Meanwhile, turkey prices are also on the rise, partly due to the ongoing impact of Avian flu. The Trump USDA’s response has been inconsistent, hampered by layoffs and budget reductions. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture has noted a 75 percent increase in wholesale turkey prices over the past year. An earlier report from the American Farm Bureau Federation indicated a 40 percent rise in wholesale turkey prices, with retailers passing some of these costs onto consumers. Retailers often use frozen turkeys to attract customers, hoping to make higher profits on other holiday goods like baked treats, side dishes, and packaged products.
Ham prices are up nearly 50 percent this year, and beef roasts are also up nearly 20 percent over the past year. Turkey wholesale prices appear to be rising as well, as Avian flu continues to impact flocks and the Trump USDA’s response has been scattershot due to layoffs and budget cuts. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture reported that wholesale turkey prices are up 75% in the past year, and an earlier analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that wholesale turkey prices were up 40%, and retailers were passing part of these hikes along to customers. Retailers typically use frozen turkeys as a key value item to get customers in the door while making higher margins on the rest of their holiday offerings, such as baked goods, side dishes and packaged products.
Voters are buying less food, according to new data.
Groundwork Collaborative/Data For Progress
President Donald Trump recently claimed that costs for Thanksgiving meals dropped by 25%, citing a basket from Walmart. But Walmart’s 2025 meal basket offered fewer items and different products, including a smaller turkey and cheaper private label products. It was also missing items that have seen large price jumps, such as onions and sweet potatoes. In a real sense, it was just cheaper because it had less food.
A press release from the White House also noted cheaper deals at Lidl, Aldi, and Target. Target, like Walmart, switched out products for cheaper alternatives. Aldi and Lidl are deep discounters known for implementing steep price rollbacks to undercut competitors.
Politico recently interviewed Trump, asking him what grade he would give the current economy. His answer: “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” Trump repeatedly promised to bring down the price of groceries “on day one”, but now is trying to assure Americans that things are better than they seem, stating on Fox News, “The polls are fake. We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had.”
Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, doubled down on this in a recent interview, claiming, “The American people don’t know how good they have it.” Bessent and Trump echoed former President Joe Biden, who argued that “America has the best economy in the world” while food prices climbed on his watch by nearly 30%, with large declines in food consumption, high interest rates, supply chain disruptions, widespread price gouging and market consolidation, and skyrocketing poverty and food insecurity. While Trump may have inherited Biden’s economy, the new administration has not brought prices down. It is no surprise that November election victories were all about affordability.
Trump has since walked back tariffs on coffee and bananas, but this will provide little aggregate relief in the short term, with tariff costs estimated at over $1200 per household already this year and immigration raids leaving crops to rot and putting pressure on food supply chains.
Health insurance costs are about to skyrocket and retail price inflation may pick up in the next few months as retailers begin passing tariff costs on to consumers. All grocers are watching how Walmart passes through such tariff expenses and if they will move on price in January. Costco, on the other hand, is suing the Trump Administration in a bid to recoup tariff expenses that they have so far absorbed. Costco’s wholesale model and low markups mean they do not have a lot of wiggle room on cost hikes. And Albertsons Chief Executive Susan Morris said on a recent earnings call that customers are buying less and using more coupons.
On top of all of this, massive cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will reduce or eliminate food assistance for more than 22 million families, while over 47 million Americans are already skipping meals or relying on food banks. If Walmart’s holiday baskets are any indication, it seems like the only way Americans can save money on food this holiday season is just by eating less.
