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Superman pocketed an estimated $25 million from early domestic screenings this week as it heads into opening weekend on track for a roughly $130 million domestic haul.
Rachel Brosnahan and David Corenswet star in “Superman.”
Source: WBD, DC Studios
Superman Pre-Weekend Math
With approximately $3 million from special fan screenings and Thursday’s $22 million in preview screenings, all signs point to momentum building behind Superman as opening weekend arrives.
But we have yet to see if Superman can maintain that momentum across the three-day weekend. So for now, the range is still somewhere between $120 million if Thursday took much of the steam out of the main fanbase attendance, or potentially $130 million if the sizable family audience turns out and word of mouth sustains at its current level.
Even at the lower end of the latest estimates, Superman should get close enough to $250 million in its global bow that, if audience grades are as high as expected (I’m anticipating an A grade, or A- at “worst”), a final cume north of $700 million is in the cards. In fact, even a weak 2.5x final multiplier would still carry Superman toward $625 million, which I believe is high enough to call it a successful DCU foundation and go full steam ahead.
That’s good news for WBD and DC Studios, who are counting on Superman to help lift the newly minted DC cinematic universe (or DCU) to new heights after seven years of DC’s shared-world films face-planting or severely underperforming. Aside from the standalone The Batman and first Joker movie, the other nine DC superhero films since 2018 have all failed to top $440 million worldwide, and most failed to even break the $300 million barrier.
Superman Will Top Thunderbolts*
Thunderbolts* (aka The New Avengers, as it should’ve been titled and marketed if Marvel wanted to score a bigger summer season opening) opened to $75 million domestic and $170 million worldwide, and finished with an unfortunately awful 2.2x final multiplier that left it with just $382 million in total global receipts by the end of its run, even with an A- grade from viewers via Cinemascore and a Rotten Tomatoes “Fresh” rating of 88%. Notice, too, that Thunderbolts* also sports a 93% audience rating (aka “Popcornmeter”) from verified ticket-holders.
Those critical and audience numbers look pretty similar to Superman, and could thus be seen as a warning sign to DC Studios that enthusiastic public reactions and a decent enough opening weekend under a generally blockbuster studio/shared-world banner can still turn south quickly if you can’t sustain momentum.
But the real point is this – if Thunderbolts* can top $382 million off a $75 million domestic opening and 2.2x final multiplier, simply converting for Superman’s additional monetary advantage alone would suggest a final total north of $500 million for the Man of Steel. That’s way lower than anyone expects or hopes, but it’s still significantly higher than even the best-performing of the DCEU titles in recent years.
Which inherently signals audiences are more interested and willing to give more of a chance to a brand new sight-unseen DC world and Superman movie than they were for most of the DCEU or even a Joker sequel. I mention this point a lot, because I think the key to understanding and predicting what’s about to happen for Superman and the DCU – and for James Gunn himself – requires us to grasp how the superhero cinema landscape has shifted, particularly around DC properties and especially Superman.
That north of $500 million already seems to be the realistic “worst case scenario,” and more likely north of $700 million, is such a move-the-needle moment for a broader brand (DC) and a character who’ve struggled outside of some very narrow parameters (which usually involve Batman) when it comes to longterm mainstream theatrical success.
What was the last widely popular and unequivocally successful Superman theatrical release? Not since Superman II in 1980 has there been a feature film released in which reviewers, audiences, and box office all lined up behind a movie featuring the Big Blue Boy Scout. That’s 45 years and four solo Superman movies, plus two more major subsequent appearances in other DCEU movies and a cameo in a third.
It doesn’t matter what we think of those other seven movies, there’s simply no denying that none of them achieved a trifecta of A-range audience scores, consensus critical praise, and blockbuster hit status that met or exceeded expectations. In every case, one or more of those things (usually all three, if we’re being blunt) are missing.
Superman has potential for all three, and if that happens, then it’s up, up and away for the DCU. I’ll have the weekend numbers soon, so stay tuned and check back soon.
