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An early U.S. intelligence report found Iran’s nuclear program was set back only a few months after U.S. strikes, contradicting claims by President Donald Trump it was “totally destroyed” as Vice President JD Vance, military officials and nuclear watchdogs suggest the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities remains unconfirmed.
Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear sites sustained “monumental damage,” while other administration … More
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Key Facts
An intelligence report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency on Monday suggests Iran’s nuclear program was delayed less than six months, unnamed officials familiar with the assessment told multiple outlets, and one official told the New York Times the U.S. strikes closed off entrances to two enrichment facilities but “did not collapse their underground buildings.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had said on ABC News on Monday the U.S. was “confident” Iran’s nuclear program was “completely and totally obliterated,” noting there was a “high degree of confidence” the locations the U.S. strikes took place is where Iran stored its enriched uranium and that Iran “no longer [has] the capability … to threaten the world.”
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi appeared to dispute those claims in a statement earlier Monday by suggesting the agency would need to verify damage to Iran’s underground Fordow facility, including whether the site’s uranium enrichment halls were impacted, though he noted the U.S. strikes likely caused “very significant” damage.
On Sunday, hours after the mission, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said an assessment on damage to Iran’s nuclear sites was “still pending,” and Caine claimed it was “way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still be there.”
Vance, in an interview with ABC on Sunday, suggested the U.S. strikes only set back Iran’s potential to weaponize its uranium stockpile and said the U.S. was “going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel.”
Jeffrey Lewis, a professor of nonproliferation at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, wrote on X he was “unimpressed” by the U.S. strikes while citing satellite images of the attacks, claiming the U.S. “failed to target significant elements of Iran’s nuclear materials and production infrastructure.”
What Has Trump Said About U.s. Strikes On Iran’s Nuclear Sites?
“The sites we hit in Iran were totally destroyed, and everyone knows it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday, disputing “Fake News” he claims “would say anything different in order to try and demean, as much as possible—and even they say they were ‘pretty well destroyed!’” Trump claimed Saturday that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated,” adding late Sunday Iran’s nuclear site in Fordow sustained “monumental damage.
How Large Is Iran’s Uranium Stockpile?
Iran stored about 400 kilograms (about 881 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60%, near weapons-grade enrichment of 90%, according to Grossi. It’s unclear whether Iran’s uranium stockpile is still this large, Grossi noted, adding IAEA’s inspectors last verified Iran’s stockpile a “few days” before Iran’s conflict with Israel began earlier this month.
Could Iran Rebuild Its Uranium Stockpile?
It’s possible Iran could rebuild its nuclear program, but a timeline for development would depend on how much damage was done to Iran’s nuclear sites, according to the Centers for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S.-based think tank. Recent U.S. strikes would make Iran “more motivated than ever” to obtain nuclear weapons, Rosemary Kelanic, a director at the U.S.-based think tank Defense Priorities, told the New York Times. Some American officials estimated an attack on Fordow set back Iran’s nuclear program by as much as five years, the Times reported.
What We Don’t Know
Whether Iran moved its uranium stockpile before the U.S. strikes. Grossi said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi notified him on June 13—the day Israel launched airstrikes at Iran—that Iran would adopt unspecified “special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials.” Iran is required to disclose whether its nuclear materials are transferred to another facility, Grossi said, though he did not specify whether Iran had done so. Grossi reportedly said he requested IAEA’s inspectors to return to Iran’s sites to “account for the stockpiles of uranium.”
Key Background
Trump announced Saturday the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. The mission, with the codename “Operation Midnight Hammer,” was a “precision operation” that targeted Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Hegseth said. The strikes followed weeks of the Trump administration pushing for Iran to end its nuclear program before a conflict escalated between Iran and Israel. Shortly after the strikes, Trump warned Iran against retaliating, claiming, “There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran.” Vance echoed Trump’s call for peace and said the U.S. was “not at war with Iran, we’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.” Araghchi accused the U.S. of an “unprecedented violation” of the UN’s founding charter and international law, arguing Trump was “abusing our commitment to diplomacy.”
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