A recent study conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford has projected a significant rise in the number of excessively hot days in the United Kingdom, forecasting a staggering 150% increase by the year 2050. This analysis, which explores the potential impact of a global temperature increase of 2°C, suggests that this scenario is becoming alarmingly probable. According to the study, Ireland could face an even more dramatic rise, with the frequency of hot days surging by 230%.

The researchers caution that this uptick in temperature could have severe consequences for the UK and Ireland, where infrastructure is primarily designed for colder climates. Dr. Jesus Lizana, the study’s lead author, emphasized the urgency of early adaptation measures, noting that significant changes in heating and cooling demands will occur before reaching the 1.5°C warming threshold. “Homes might need air conditioning installations within the next five years,” Dr. Lizana explained, “but even then, temperatures will continue to climb if we reach 2.0°C of global warming.”

Achieving the global target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will necessitate a transformation of the building sector, alongside the development of robust adaptation strategies. Many regions worldwide already experience extreme heat, as evidenced by 2010 research indicating that nearly 23% of the global population lived under such conditions. This new study aims to project how these circumstances might evolve with ongoing climate change, offering a sobering glimpse into a potentially hotter future.

According to their model, by 2030, 34 per cent of the world – the equivalent of 2.8 billion people – will live in extreme heat regions. Looking further ahead, by 2050, that will increase to 41 per cent, leaving 3.79 billion people facing extreme heat. The countries affected the most will be India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines, according to the study. However, that’s not to say that people in the UK will be protected. The researchers also found that countries with colder climates will see a much larger relative change in uncomfortably hot days. Warming to 2°C would lead to a 100 per cent increase in the number of uncomfortably hot days in Austria and Canada, a 150 per cent increase in the UK, Sweden, Finland, a 200 per cent increase in Norway, and a 230 per cent increase in Ireland.

The researchers hope the findings will prompt urgent action to curb emissions. ‘Our findings should be a wake–up call,’ warned Dr Radhika Khosla, co–author of the study. ‘Overshooting 1.5°C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming. ‘Net zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing this trend for ever hotter days. ‘It is imperative politicians regain the initiative towards it.’ The news comes shortly after the Met Office confirmed that 2025 was Britain’s hottest year on record. The average temperature in the UK last year was a balmy 10.09°C, which is 0.96°C above the long–term average.

2025 joins 2022 and 2023 in the top three warmest years since 1884. According to the Met Office, this is a ‘clear demonstration of the impacts of climate change’. Dr Mark McCarthy, head of climate attribution at the Met Office, said: ‘We’re increasingly seeing UK temperatures break new ground in our changing climate, as demonstrated by a new highest UK mean temperature record just three years after the last record. ‘This very warm year is in line with expected consequences of human–induced climate change. ‘Although it doesn’t mean every year will be the warmest on record, it is clear from our weather observations and climate models that human–induced global warming is impacting the UK’s climate.’