Elon Musk is embracing the role of troublemaker for Republicans in the 2026 midterms, threatening to form a third-party that could play spoiler to the GOP’s effort of holding onto the Senate and House. 

July polling conducted for the Daily Mail by J.L. Partners found that while a Musk-backed party would only garner 4 percent support, it allowed the Democrats to have a 9-point advantage over the GOP in a generic House of Representatives ballot. 

The world’s richest man clearly bears the resources to upend the traditional duopoly that’s powered American politics for more than two centuries. What remains foggy is whether the tech titan holds the strategic focus, discipline and sheer will that such a daunting political undertaking will require. 

Especially in an epic showdown against the singular political force of one Donald J. Trump.  

If Musk’s political drive matches the market capitalization of Tesla, he could create a movement that could easily kill the GOP majority. 

‘If Elon invests in half a dozen races, that could be the difference between the Republicans being in power and Hakeem Jeffries and AOC having the keys to power. And that is unacceptable,’ said James Fishback, a former Department of Government Efficiency employee who’s now funding an effort to stop Musk in his tracks.  

If his commitment mirrors his uneven stewardship of X, formerly known as Twitter, his third party movement won’t be known for more than a viral meme.   

‘Third parties are nothing new to politics on any level. We already have the Libertarians, we already have the Green Party, we already have the Rent is Too Damn High party,’ pointed out Hogan Gidley, an adviser to House Speaker Mike Johnson and a veteran of the first Trump administration. 

‘The political reality is it is extremely difficult to mount third party runs that are victorious because you don’t have a natural base of voters of which to pull,’ Gidley observed. ‘He doesn’t have the juice.’

Musk also doesn’t seem to yet have his ducks in a row.  

Despite his announcement on July 7 that he was officially forming the American Party, Musk has filed no paperwork to do so. 

An aide to Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie – who Musk signaled he would help defend from a Trump primary challenge – wasn’t able to point the Daily Mail to any official outreach. 

And then there’s Musk’s own waning political popularity. CNN released a survey Friday showing him as the least popular public figure the network polled, with Musk’s favorability plummeting a staggering 66 percentage points in just four months.

Support for his third party registered at a paltry 25 percent.   

The entity that appears most outwardly excited about Musk’s third party play is a group that’s been struggling to find relevance for decades: Libertarians.

‘Our position is that Elon should join up with the Libertarians for the simple fact that we have the most ballot access of any third party,’ Steven Nekhaila, chair of the Libertarian National Committee, told the Daily Mail. 

It’s extremely difficult to run winning candidates outside the two-party system due to differing and often confusing ballot access rules in every state. Many states require tens of thousands of signatures apportioned over specific geographic regions to qualify.

‘I think Elon is going to be pleasantly displeased with just how difficult it is to actually get ballot access in a lot of states,’ he continued.

Both Musk and Libertarians see value in an electoral strategy where a small group of candidates can gain leverage in Congress – Nekhaila noted that electing just a handful could wield significant influence, as major parties would need their votes to pass legislation. 

Nekhaila also suggested Musk pursue a broad, anti-duopoly movement to attract centrist voters.

Musk appears to be interested in that type of thing as he’s been in touch with Andrew Yang, who’s been active in the third-party space since launching his Forward Party in 2021.  

At the same time, nothing firm came out of the chatter. 

‘Yes, Andrew did speak with Elon and his team, but he has made no commitments or plans to collaborate on anything specific in the near or future term,’ a source close to Yang told the Daily Mail. 

‘The line of communication remains open,’ the source added.

A spokesperson for Musk did not respond to Daily Mail questions inquiring when Musk would form his America Party and if he’s considering joining the Libertarians.

If Musk really wanted advice on the challenges in mounting a third-party, he could reach out to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s current Health and Human Services Secretary. 

After Kennedy announced he was mounting an independent bid for the White House, much of his campaign’s time was sucked up seeking ballot access.

For instance, the Kennedy campaign got a jump on collecting signatures in Nevada to get on the ballot, but because RFK Jr. hadn’t announced a running mate yet they had to be tossed out. 

In the end, Kennedy only made the ballot in 15 states before he ended his campaign.

Additionally, there are already Trump-aligned groups ready to combat any of Musk’s efforts.  

In late June, two of Trump’s top political advisers, Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio, launched MAGA Kentucky, a super PAC designed with one purpose – damage Massie. 

One of MAGA Kentucky’s first ads blasted Massie as an acolyte of uber-liberals Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and likening him to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for questioning Trump’s bombing campaign of Iran. 

Musk vowed to help the libertarian congressman but has made no moves to since.  

Fishback, the CEO of the investment firm Azoria, poured a million dollars of his own money to a new super PAC that was named to troll Musk. 

The group is called FSD PAC as ‘FSD’ in Tesla parlance means ‘full self-driving’ cars. But in the political world, Fishback wanted the acronym to mean ‘Full Support for Donald.’

The PAC will deploy a whack-a-mole type strategy, waiting for Musk to pop his head up.

If Musk funds a candidate, FSD PAC will finance the Trump-aligned alternative. 

‘It’s a hedge,’ Fishback explained to the Daily Mail. ‘I hope, by the way, that this is simply an insurance policy,’ he added. 

Trump has his own insurance policy – a massive war chest, with Fox News reporting in late June totals about $1.4 billion.  

‘This will likely be a headache for Republicans,’ Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said of Musk’s involvement. ‘But with Trump being the fundraiser-in-chief and an already massive billion dollar war chest, money isn’t going to be an issue.’ 

However with Musk threatening to run primary challengers against MAGA-aligned Republicans Bonjean warned that ‘candidate quality is going matter now more than ever in order to be successful.’

Democrats are enthusiastic that Musk and any Musk-aligned candidates could potentially shine more light on two issue areas where they could benefit – the ‘big, beautiful bill’ and Jeffrey Epstein. 

‘The ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax law is Republicans’ top liability because it breaks their promises to lower costs and stand up for working people. Musk’s attacks on the BBB compound that problem,’ observed Andrew Bates, the principal at Wolfpack Strategies, and a veteran of President Joe Biden’s press shop. 

The White House’s Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair shrugged off Musk’s threats in a gaggle with reporters on Friday. 

‘I don’t know where that’s going or if he’ll follow through with that and frankly I’m not focused on it,’ Blair told the Daily Mail.