In the heart of Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands at a crossroads, tasked with determining the timing of Israel’s forthcoming elections. Yet, amidst ongoing conflicts and uncertainty, the decision may be influenced by external forces, particularly those in Iran and Lebanon.

The implications of this decision are profound. A triumph in the elections could cement Netanyahu’s status as Israel’s most enduring leader, potentially silencing critiques following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. These attacks ignited a prolonged period of war throughout the region. Conversely, losing the election might spell the end for Netanyahu’s political career, marking him as a prominent casualty of the deadliest assault in Israel’s history—a tragedy that still haunts the nation and has already prompted several notable resignations and dismissals.

To understand what is at stake for Netanyahu, one must consider how the ongoing tensions with Iran and Hezbollah could shape his political destiny.

Netanyahu faces a significant deadline as his administration nears the end of its four-year tenure, with elections mandated by the close of October. However, Netanyahu holds the power to dissolve the current coalition prematurely, thereby initiating early elections—a common occurrence in Israeli politics.

With the deadline approaching, Netanyahu finds himself weighing the political landscape to select a date that maximizes the electoral prospects for himself and his coalition of religious and nationalist allies.

With this deadline looming, Netanyahu can choose a date when he thinks he and his religious and nationalist partners have the best chance to win.

Since elections are scheduled three months ahead of time, he could move now to schedule a vote in late June, just before the summer vacation season, or wait until the fall.

A decisive victory in war could bring early elections

A quick campaign and decisive victory over Iran could boost Netanyahu’s public standing and give him the confidence to call an early election. He could boast of Israel’s military power and the close ties with U.S. President Donald Trump that made this war possible, while claiming to have reshaped the region to Israel’s advantage after the Oct. 7 attack.

But three weeks into the war, that scenario looks increasingly unlikely.

Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel each day, disrupting the lives of millions of anxious and exhausted voters. Israel’s war with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon is intensifying, and with Iran disrupting the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf and upending the global economy, Trump has given no indication when the war may end. Members of the “America First” wing of the Republican Party have begun to accuse Israel of dragging the U.S. into a needless war.

Recent opinion polls in Israel indicate that while Israelis overwhelmingly support the war, Netanyahu and his political coalition don’t appear to be benefiting.

In this environment, there is little incentive for Netanyahu to push up the election date, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

“It doesn’t seem like there’s any remarkable change in Israeli public opinion,” he said. “He’d rather buy more time and exhaust the full term that is available to him.”

Netanyahu appears to be leaning toward a fall election

Netanyahu still has a few weeks to make a decision. But for now, he appears to be leaning toward a fall election. At a news conference last week, Netanyahu said he hopes elections will be in “September or October.”

That would give Netanyahu, the ultimate political survivor, a few more months to rebuild his popularity.

A prolonged war could make this more difficult, raising the risk of additional Israeli casualties and demoralizing and further exhausting the public. Northern Israel has come under especially heavy fire from Hezbollah in recent days, and residents, including people in traditional Netanyahu strongholds, have voiced anger over Israel’s failure to halt the attacks.

On the global stage, a drawn-out conflict could raise the likelihood of disagreements with Trump. It also could further tarnish Israel’s international standing after the heavily criticized war in Gaza, for which Netanyahu has been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, allegations he denies.

Plesner says that a narrow window in early September, just before the monthlong holiday season, looks like the best time for Netanyahu to hold the vote.

Otherwise, the election will take place close to the Oct. 7 anniversary, when Israelis are again reminded of that tragic day.