It feels like England can’t spend more than three seconds ahead in a tournament match before someone starts shouting ‘It’s coming home!’.

As a nation without the tournament pedigree historically to necessarily justify consistently being regarded as favourites we do seem extremely quick to pull the trigger on that particular chant. 

However, whether it be poorly-aimed attempts at manifesting our destiny, mindless optimism or unconscious muscle memory, we are notoriously quick to sing our own praises. 

However, before we get to talk of football coming home, we have the important business of actually making it out the group first – so what needs to go England’s way tonight for the Three Lions to join Germany in the second round? And is a draw enough? 

What if England win? 

England beat Serbia 1-0 as we know, Jude Bellingham thumping home the only goal of the game with his increasingly marketable head to give the Three Lions the perfect start. 

Earlier on in the day, Denmark were held to a perhaps surprise 1-1 draw by Slovenia with Jan Oblak, Benjamin Sesko and Co impressing on their first tournament appearance in 14 years. 

As such that leaves the group looking like this:

1. England 3pts (GD +1)
2. Denmark 1pt (GD 0) 
3. Slovenia 1pt (GD 0)
4. Serbia 0pts (GD -1). 

Therefore, as you’d imagine, a win puts England through regardless of results; their six points would be unassailable by more than one team, even if they did lose to Slovenia next week. 

Serbia could get a maximum of six points still, and so could Slovenia, but crucially they play one another today, meaning only one of them can actually do so. Likewise, Denmark would only be able to get three more if they lost today, taking them to four in total.

So a win is enough to qualify today, however it does not necessarily confirm group winner status. 

For that, they are relying on Slovenia not beating Serbia – i.e. a win for England, and a win or draw for Serbia, and Southgate and Co are through as top dogs in the group. 

What if England draw? 

But what if England draw, I hear you asking, pitchforks within reach. Well, it wouldn’t actually be the end of the world. 

Seven points would be enough to take England through top of the group, as Denmark would only be able to muster a maximum total of five (one win, two draws), Serbia six (two wins, one defeat), while Slovenia could only get four if England beat them on Tuesday (one win, one draw, one defeat). 

So if England draw with Denmark and beat Slovenia they’re through top. But what if they draw tonight and lose to Slovenia? A draw certainly piles the pressure on heading into that last game.

A draw tonight could leave the group looking like this:

So they wouldn’t be out by any stretch, but they would need at least a draw in their final game, and hope for a better goal difference than Denmark if they beat Serbia in the final game given England and Denmark would be drawing in this eventuality, and so head to head would not matter. 

What if England lose tonight?

Well… again, although Southgate would likely begin to feel a little more heat than usual, England would still be able to go through top of the group if they can beat Slovenia. 

Defeat tonight and victory for Slovenia (likely the worst case scenario) puts the latter on four, and Denmark would also be on four, with whoever scores more goals tonight likely sitting top.

England would be down on three – crucially just the one point behind – and Serbia bottom on none. 

Therefore, a loss tonight, but a win over Slovenia, and Denmark not beating Serbia on the final day, and England are still through on top with six points. Important to remember, even if things don’t go to plan tonight.

A loss tonight and against Slovenia, Slovenia beating Serbia tonight, and Denmark beating Serbia, would leave Slovenia and Denmark both on seven, England on three and Serbia on nothing, with the Three Lions relying on qualifying as a best third-placed team.  

It’s a lot to get your heads around, but essentially: England win tonight, they’re through. England win tonight and Slovenia fail to beat Serbia, and they’re through as winners. 

A draw tonight is not the end of the world, but they would need to beat Slovenia to be sure of going through top, while two draws would need the Three Lions requiring results to go their way, and they could potentially find themselves in a three-way fight on five points with Slovenia and Denmark.

Similarly, defeat tonight is not the end of the world – though it may probably feel like it – and England can still top the group. Two losses make things somewhat more interesting, but let’s not worry about that one too much just yet. 

Who could England face in the Last-16?

In the spirit of getting ahead of ourselves, let’s indulge in a bit of running before we can walk. 

Should all go to plan, England will win Group C, which draws them against the third-placed side in Groups D, E or F – at the time of writing those are Poland, Belgium and Czechia, though Austria, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine and Georgia are also likely contenders. 

Come second in the group, and that could tee up clashes with the winners of Group A, which for all intents and purposes would be Germany, who have six points, seven goals, and a whole heap of plaudits from two games. It wouldn’t exactly be ideal. 

Finish third, and qualify as one of the four best third-placed sides, and England would take on the winners of either Group E or Group F – at the moment looking like Portugal or Belgium going of FIFA rankings, so maybe third place is a better option then second?