Both BYD and Tesla are on the verge of releasing their full-year sales reports for 2025. Although Tesla’s figures are still pending, the existing data strongly suggests that BYD will officially take the lead.

On Thursday, BYD announced that sales of its electric vehicles surged by nearly 28%, reaching 2.26 million units. While Tesla has yet to publish its 2025 sales numbers, an update is expected to follow shortly, further clarifying the standings in this competitive market.

The two carmakers are poised to publish their final annual sales figures for 2025, although based on available sales data, it appears all but certain that BYD will officially surpass Tesla.

In a statement published Thursday, BYD said sales of its battery-powered cars rose nearly 28% to 2.26 million units. Tesla has not yet released its 2025 sales figures, although it is expected to do so later in the day.

On Monday, Tesla compiled an average estimate for 1.6 million vehicle deliveries in 2025, down roughly 8% from 2024, putting the company on track for its second straight annual drop.

Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales reported by Tesla, but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.

Tesla has endured a roller-coaster ride this year. The company saw shares collapse in the first quarter of 2025 amid stiff competition, particularly from Chinese EV manufacturers, and reputational fallout from Musk’s incendiary political rhetoric.

The stock price has come roaring back in recent weeks, however, after Musk said the company had been testing driverless vehicles in Austin, Texas, with no occupants on board, almost six months after launching a pilot program with safety drivers.

— CNBC’s Lora Kolodny contributed to this report.