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IHME model predicts 131,000 deaths by August

A top coronavirus model relied on by the White House is now predicting that 131,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by August as fatalities in the United States near 100,000.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revised its projected death toll downwards on Tuesday by 11,000. 

The latest forecast predicts 131,967 people will die in the US by August 4, which is down from the 143,357 fatalities projected in last week’s revision. 

More than 98,900 Americans have so far died from coronavirus and there are currently over 1.6 million across the United States. 

The official US death toll from coronavirus is expected to reach six figures this week – 100,000 lives wiped out by a virus that was unknown six months ago. 

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revised its projected death toll downwards on Tuesday by 11,000. The latest forecast predicts 131,967 people will die in the US by August 4

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revised its projected death toll downwards on Tuesday by 11,000. The latest forecast predicts 131,967 people will die in the US by August 4

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revised its projected death toll downwards on Tuesday by 11,000. The latest forecast predicts 131,967 people will die in the US by August 4

According to the IHME model, seven states are estimated to have experienced average COVID-19 death rates of at least 50 per 100,000 people. 

Those states include hard hit New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and Michigan. 

Currently, the highest rates of estimated COVID-19 infections appear to be occurring in Rhode Island, Iowa, Massachusetts and New Jersey, according to the model. 

IHME’s model also estimates that testing rates indicate that Rhode Island, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Massachusetts and New York have among the highest levels of testing in the country. 

In all of these states, estimated levels of testing have surpassed estimated infections – a key factor in supporting timely disease detection and response, the model shows. 

IHME’s revised model indicates that increased levels of mobility across the US may affect death and infection rates after lockdowns in all 50 states were partially lifted. 

According to the IHME model, seven states are estimated to have experienced average COVID-19 death rates of at least 50 per 100,000 people. Those states include hard hit New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and Michigan

According to the IHME model, seven states are estimated to have experienced average COVID-19 death rates of at least 50 per 100,000 people. Those states include hard hit New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and Michigan

According to the IHME model, seven states are estimated to have experienced average COVID-19 death rates of at least 50 per 100,000 people. Those states include hard hit New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Rhode Island, and Michigan

More than 98,900 Americans have so far died from coronavirus and there are currently over 1.6 million across the United States. The official US death toll from coronavirus is expected to reach six figures this week

More than 98,900 Americans have so far died from coronavirus and there are currently over 1.6 million across the United States. The official US death toll from coronavirus is expected to reach six figures this week

More than 98,900 Americans have so far died from coronavirus and there are currently over 1.6 million across the United States. The official US death toll from coronavirus is expected to reach six figures this week

At least 20 states are now experiencing mobility patterns that are only 10 percent to 30 percent lower than baseline levels. A month earlier, on April 26, mobility was at least 35 percent to 40 percent lower in most states. 

Researchers say it remains to be seen exactly how increasing human mobility might relate to heightened viral transmission.    

Twenty states have reported an increase in new cases for the week ending May 24, which is up from 13 states in the prior week, according to a Reuters analysis. 

South Carolina had the biggest weekly increase at 42 percent. Alabama’s new cases rose 28 percent from the previous week, Missouri’s rose 27 percent and North Carolina’s rose 26 percent. 

New cases in Georgia, one of the first states to reopen, rose 21 percent after two weeks of declines. 

Nationally, new cases of COVID-19 fell 0.8 percent for the week ended May 24, compared with a decline of 8 percent in the prior week.  

IHME's model estimates that testing rates indicate that Rhode Island, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Massachusetts and New York have among the highest levels of testing in the country

IHME's model estimates that testing rates indicate that Rhode Island, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Massachusetts and New York have among the highest levels of testing in the country

IHME’s model estimates that testing rates indicate that Rhode Island, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Massachusetts and New York have among the highest levels of testing in the country 

IHME's revised model indicates that increased levels of mobility across the US may affect death and infection rates after lockdowns in all 50 states were partially lifted

IHME's revised model indicates that increased levels of mobility across the US may affect death and infection rates after lockdowns in all 50 states were partially lifted

IHME’s revised model indicates that increased levels of mobility across the US may affect death and infection rates after lockdowns in all 50 states were partially lifted

All 50 states have now at least partially reopened, raising fears among some health officials of a second wave of outbreaks. 

The increase in cases could also be due to more testing. 

The CDC has recommended states wait for their daily number of new COVID-19 cases to fall for 14 days before easing social distancing restrictions.

As of May 24, only 15 states had met that criteria, which is up from 13 in the prior week.

Washington state, where the US outbreak first started, has the longest streak with cases falling for eight weeks in a row, followed by Hawaii at seven weeks and Pennsylvania and New York at six weeks.

Washington state posted the biggest drop in cases, down over 50 percent, followed by Kentucky, where new cases fell nearly 30 percent. New York saw new cases drop 23 percent.

Texas saw new cases fall 15 percent after they rose 22 percent in the prior week. 

Source: dailymail US

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