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Topline
Iranian and Western officials on Sunday temporarily paused discussions seeking to revive an abandoned nuclear deal after a staunch Western critic won Iran’s presidential election on Friday, prompting U.S. and European Union leaders to caution about renewed urgency in long-fraught nuclear talks between the parties.
The break comes after Iran’s Friday election of Ebrahim Raisi—a conservative chief justice linked to … [+]
AFP via Getty Images
Key Facts
Two diplomats involved in negotiations to reinstate a 2015 nuclear agreement told Reuters on Sunday afternoon they expect discussions to resume after about 10 days.
Meant to give officials time to return to their nations and consult other leaders, the break follows the Friday presidential election of Ebrahim Raisi—a conservative chief justice sanctioned by the U.S. in 2019 for his alleged involvement in mass executions decades ago.
It’s unclear how much Raisi’s election will affect negotiations, but on Sunday, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told ABC’s This Week the decision ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who Sullivan said is “the same person before this election as he is after the election.”
Sullivan also noted there is “still a fair distance to travel” on key issues being ironed out, including U.S. sanctions against Iran and the types of nuclear commitments Iran will make.
Earlier Sunday morning, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett—who’s long opposed an agreement alongside Arab countries and many U.S. conservatives—called Raisi’s election “the last chance for world powers to wake up… and understand who they are doing business with,” adding that a “regime of brutal hangmen must never… have weapons of mass-destruction.”
Crucial Quote
“As we have stated before, time is on nobody’s side. These talks cannot be open ended,” diplomats from Britain, France and Germany said in a note reported by Reuters while echoing Sullivan in saying critical issues were still under debate.
Surprising Fact
According to Al Jazeera, when Raisi takes office in early August, he’ll become the first Iranian president sanctioned by the United States. According to the Treasury Department, Raisi “participated in a so-called death commission that ordered the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988.”
Key Background
In 2018, President Trump withdrew from a three-year-old agreement under which Iran agreed to dismantle parts of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. “We cannot prevent an Iranian bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement,” Trump said at the time. “Therefore, I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.” Once he reimposed sanctions, Iran began to resume some of its nuclear activities. President Biden has said he’d get back into the agreement, but Iranian officials continue to insist the U.S. lift sanctions before talks resume. Thus far, only some sanctions have been lifted.
What To Watch For
“Iran might end up like North Korea with a growing nuclear arsenal, but if we are lucky it might prefer to be more like Japan—satisfied with the capability in its back pocket,” Jeffrey Lewis, an arms-control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California, told Forbes earlier this year of what may arise if Iran refuses to reenter a nuclear agreement.
Further Reading
U.S. says disagreements on key issues remain in Iran nuclear talks (Reuters)
Iran Is Close To Getting An Atomic Bomb—But It Could Still Choose To Stop (Forbes)
Iran Rejects Offer of Direct U.S. Nuclear Talks, Senior Diplomats Say (WSJ)
Source: Forbes
