The recent meningitis outbreak in Kent appears to have reached a plateau, with health officials reporting just two new cases on Friday.

The UK’s Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) announced that by 12:30 p.m. on Thursday, there were a total of 29 cases linked to the Kent outbreak. This includes 18 confirmed cases and 11 considered probable, with 13 of the confirmed instances being meningitis B.

Although the number of new cases seems to be declining, the outbreak remains a grave concern as all affected individuals have required hospitalization. As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the UKHSA reported that 2,360 vaccinations had been administered, and 9,840 doses of antibiotics were distributed to those impacted by the outbreak.

Professor Robin May, the UKHSA’s Chief Scientific Officer, noted that experts are still investigating whether the meningitis B strain involved in this outbreak has become more easily transmissible. In a typical scenario, only one new meningitis case might be expected each day.

Speaking to Times Radio, Professor May stated, “We have been working tirelessly since identifying this outbreak, trying to gather more information. Our efforts include DNA and genome sequencing of this particular strain. The analysis is incredibly complex, as the bacterial genome is about 100 times larger than that of COVID, making the process significantly more intricate.”

He added, “We are concentrating on determining whether there have been any changes in the bacteria that could enhance its ability to spread or cause disease.”

UKHSA said initial genetic analysis had showed “the Bexsero vaccine currently being offered in Kent should provide protection against the type of MenB in this outbreak”.

It said: “The strain belongs to a group of bacteria known as group B meningococci, sequence type 485 belonging to the larger clonal complex ST-41/44. Similar strains have been circulating in the UK for around five years but detailed analysis of the outbreak pathogen is required.”

The news comes as the family of a teenager who died from the disease described their “immeasurable loss”.

Juliette Kenny died on 14 March, one day after developing symptoms, which were vomiting and discoloration in her cheeks, according to her father, Michael Kenny.

“No family should experience this pain and tragedy,” he said, adding that he wanted his daughter’s legacy to be “lasting change”. The family is now campaigning for teenagers and young people to be routinely given access to the meningitis B vaccination.

Asked if similar outbreaks could happen again, May said: “Well obviously, that’s something we’re very conscious of.”

He said: “We’ll be mindful both of the possibility of this particular strain, for example, re-emerging in the future, but also general principles that we’ll learn about the bacteria. As with all pathogens, there’s always much more we can learn, and by learning more about how they work, we hope to develop better ways to prevent them causing disease in the future.”

Responding to the latest figures, Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, said that with an incubation period of up to 10 days, “we can be fairly certain that the peak from the initial super-spreading event will have already passed”, though there could still be secondary cases among people who did not attend the nightclub but caught it from someone who did.

Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, said: “Given the extent of contact tracing from public health teams, and the widespread publicity, it is plausible that we are seeing the tail end of this outbreak.

“The strain appears to have good coverage from the MenB vaccination, so this is also reassuring.”

Brendan Wren, a professor of microbial pathogenesis at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said the genetic analysis “suggests that the strain has not mutated into a more invasive strain”, though the full genome sequence would need to be studied to definitively confirm this.