How close is Iran to having nuclear weapons?

() Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure early Friday morning, calling the attacks a preemptive move to stop Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces warned that Iran is “closer than ever” to obtaining a nuclear weapon, calling it an “existential threat” to the world.

Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon, but Western analysts say it has the knowledge and infrastructure to produce one “in fairly short order” if its leaders chose to, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S.-based think tank.

That concern has been amplified by Iran’s long history of secret nuclear weapons research. However, as recently as October, U.S. intelligence officials told Reuters they still believed Iran had decided not to build a nuclear weapon after suspending its program in 2003.

If Iran wanted to, analysts have said it could produce enough fissile material for a weapon within a few months, while some estimate the country could do so in just a week or two, per CFR.

Fears about Iran’s nuclear ambitions grew in May, when the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Tehran had expanded its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium. The report, seen by The Associated Press, raised a stern warning, saying that Iran is now “the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such material.”

Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, nine countries possessed nuclear weapons at the start of 2025: the U.S., Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

What weapons does Iran have?

Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons, but it does have the largest ballistic missile inventory in the Middle East.

In 2022, U.S. Central Command estimated that Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles in its arsenal, some of which could reach Tel Aviv. 

“Ballistic missiles take a parabolic path through the atmosphere, traveling much faster than drones and cruise missiles, and are generally harder to intercept,” the Council on Foreign Relations notes.

Iran’s longest-range missiles are reportedly capable of striking targets up to roughly 1,240 miles away, covering all of the Middle East and parts of Europe, CFR said. Tehran also has cruise missiles and drones.

Despite its vast arsenal, Iran has not yet tested or deployed a missile capable of striking the United States, though it continues to develop long-range missiles through its space-launch program, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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