DHAKA – Tarique Rahman, who is the son of a former Bangladeshi prime minister, made a highly anticipated return to his homeland in December after spending 17 years in self-imposed exile. Upon his arrival, he assured his followers, “I have a plan.”

Rahman’s homecoming coincided with a period of significant change. Bangladesh was navigating an uncertain path under an interim government, edging towards national elections. Many citizens saw his return as a beacon of hope. His key political opponent, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, would not be participating in the election, having been ousted by a student-led uprising in 2024.

Fast forward two months, and Rahman has emerged as the leading candidate in the upcoming election on Thursday. Speaking to a large gathering at a campaign event in Dhaka on Monday, Rahman addressed the audience amidst tight security, as enthusiastic supporters filled the park with cheers and dance.

“The primary aim of this plan is to transform the destiny of our people and our nation,” Rahman proclaimed to the assembly.

Nevertheless, the road ahead is fraught with challenges for whoever secures victory.

The upcoming election in Bangladesh arrives in the wake of a turbulent era characterized by mob violence, increasing religious intolerance, press freedom attacks, and a rise in Islamist influence, all contributing to a weakened legal framework. Conducting a fair election will be a formidable task, and the subsequent governance may further test the resilience of already strained democratic institutions after over a decade of contentious elections and diminishing political freedoms.

Election will be a two-way contest

“An election with relatively little violence in which people are able to vote freely and all sides accept the outcome would be a significant step forward,” said Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group, a think tank devoted to resolving conflicts. Yet he cautioned that the restoration of democracy, after facing severe strains under Hasina’s rule, would be a long-term challenge.

That process, Kean said, has “only just started.”

Rahman — the 60-year-old son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia — has been promising job creation, greater freedom of speech, law and order, and an end to corruption. His campaign seeks to portray him as a bulwark of democracy in a political landscape long dominated by entrenched parties, military coups and vote rigging.

Though Rahman never held office in his mother’s governments, many Bangladeshis saw him as wielding considerable influence within her Bangladesh Nationalist Party until her death in December.

BNP’s main opponent is an 11-party coalition led by Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s foremost Islamist party, still shadowed by its collaboration with Pakistan during the 1971 war of independence. On Monday, its chief Shafiqur Rahman told supporters at a rally that the alliance has come together “with the dream of building a new Bangladesh.”

With Hasina’s Awami League party absent from the poll and calling on its supporters to stay away, Jamaat-e-Islami is seeking to expand its reach. The conservative party claims it would govern with restraint if elected to power, but its ascent has sparked unease, particularly over its views on women. The party chief has said women are biologically weaker than men and should not work eight hours a day like men, raising fears it could restrict the fundamental rights of women.

Some Bangladeshis are disillusioned

Anxieties over Bangladesh’s future are echoed particularly by those who were part of the uprising that paved the way for the election.

When Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus assumed office three days after Hasina’s ouster, there was optimism among many. Later, student leaders of the uprising launched a new political outfit, the National Citizen Party, styling itself as a clean break from the old political order.

That promise faded after the party joined the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance, leading to disillusion among some leaders, several of whom quit.

Tasnim Jara, a public health expert who resigned from the NCP and is running as an independent candidate, said the uprising had “opened a window” for people like her to enter politics and help reshape its culture. But that hope faded once the NCP aligned itself with the Islamists.

She said it became hard for her to see how a genuinely new political culture that many in Bangladesh have long sought could emerge from such an arrangement.

“I struggled to see how a new political culture could genuinely thrive within that framework,” she said.

Arafat Imran, a student at Dhaka University, said he joined the uprising expecting change, but feels that the aspirations that led to the protests “have not been realized.”

Imran noted that though the uprising brought new political faces, the core machinery of the state — the military, police and bureaucracy — remains largely unchanged.

True reform or meaningful change, Imran said, would require overhauling the entire system, adding that “holding elections every five years alone cannot sustain democracy.”

“Alongside elections, it is essential to guarantee the rule of law and civil rights. Had these been ensured, there might have been grounds for satisfaction regarding the elections,” he said.

Press freedoms are coming under threat

Worries have also spilled into other areas crucial to a healthy democracy.

Roksana Anzuman Nicole, a popular Dhaka talk-show host, became a rare media voice during the uprising, challenging security forces as hundreds were killed on the streets.

After Hasina’s ouster, hopes that such freedoms would expand also faded. Nicole is now off air, confined to her home, and fearful for her safety after a heated debate with a guest defending mob attacks led to threats against her, her family and colleagues.

“A major pillar of that movement was the belief that everyone would be able to speak freely, that people would enjoy freedom of expression. Sheikh Hasina left on August 5, and just 10 days later, my dreams collapsed,” she said.

Her experience is shared by others too. In December, a pro-uprising cultural activist was shot dead in central Dhaka, and protesters set fire to the offices of the country’s two largest newspapers, trapping staff inside. Last week, 21 journalists from an online outlet reporting critically on the military were briefly detained.

Many journalists told The Associated Press they have curtailed their movements or stopped going to work altogether. Many have lost their jobs as they have been branded by pro-uprising activists as collaborators of Hasina. Global human rights groups have expressed their concerns over press freedom under the Yunus-led administration.

“A free press is vital for a flourishing democracy,” said Catherine Cooper of the Robert & Ethel Kennedy Human Rights Center, one of the groups observing the election. “Protecting freedom of expression should be a top priority.”

Uncertainty over change looms large

Many Bangladeshis are putting their trust in the election. The vote will also include a referendum for political reforms that include prime ministerial term limits and stronger checks on executive power.

There is, however, uncertainty over how the nation’s democracy would look in the years to come.

Iftekhar Zaman, a Bangladeshi political analyst, said for the first time in 16 years, Bangladeshis will have a genuine chance to vote, after three elections under Hasina were marred by allegations of rigging or opposition boycotts. He described the poll as “extraordinary,” but warned that reinforcing democratic institutions would take time.

Kean of the International Crisis Group said while some of the proposed reforms are “significant and meaningful,” they won’t be enough.

“The political culture has to change as well, and we are only seeing the first signs of that,” he said.