SAO PAULO – Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was not present during the Supreme Court panel’s decision to convict and sentence him to 27 years and three months in prison for charges related to an attempted coup.

Bolsonaro, currently under house arrest and dealing with health issues, was reportedly too unwell to attend the concluding sessions, according to his lawyer. Despite these challenges and his conviction, Bolsonaro’s sway in politics is anticipated to persist.

In light of his sentencing, the public remains split on whether he truly committed a crime deserving imprisonment. This division exists even as experts concur that the far-right leader’s substantial impact will continue within the political arena of the Latin American powerhouse.

Isabela Kalil, an anthropologist and coordinator of the Extreme Right Observatory in Minas Gerais state, remarked, “We may witness an unusual scenario in Brazilian politics: an influential public figure under house arrest, legally barred from formal political engagement due to his conviction, yet still shaping political dynamics.”

A divided society

Just four days before the ruling, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters rallied nationwide on Independence Day. Among these supporters was Luiz Niemeyer, a 62-year-old businessman from Rio de Janeiro, who regards Bolsonaro as a “hero” behind an unstoppable political movement.

“Ideals are not killed, ideals are not arrested,” he said. “You can arrest Bolsonaro, you can kill Bolsonaro, but these ideals will not die.”

Surveys indicate Bolsonaro’s prominent role in Brazil’s deeply divided political scene. Even from behind bars, he might influence the choice of his coalition’s representative in the 2026 election. Analysts predict that any candidate opposing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is likely to seek reelection, must harness Bolsonaro’s essential base and his overt backing to mount a viable challenge.

Recent polls show Lula regaining his popularity, suggesting he will be a competitive candidate in the next election.

But a poll released Aug. 28 by AtlasIntel shows Lula in a statistical tie with Bolsonaro in a hypothetical election scenario, if elections were to be held then and with the same 2022 candidates on the ballot. In a first-round scenario, Bolsonaro would have 45.4% of the vote, while Lula would have 44.6%. The poll surveyed 6,238 voters online from Aug. 20 to 25, 2025. The margin of error is 1 percentage point.

The country is also divided over Bolsonaro’s conviction. A Datafolha poll from August found that 48% of Brazilians wanted to see Bolsonaro imprisoned, while 46% wanted him to remain free. The survey, which has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, was conducted in person with over 2,000 people across 130 municipalities.

“When people ask me if I think Bolsonaro is weakened, my answer is that it depends on perspective,” Kalil, from the Extreme Right Observatory group, said.

“If you consider that January 8 happened, that all of this happened, and yet he still has a base and continues to shape the direction of the far right and much of the right, I don’t see that as a sign of weakness,” she said referring to the 2023 episode when Bolsonaro supporters stormed public buildings in Brasilia in what the Prosecutor-General’s Office saw as part of his plan to remain in power after his defeat.

Still perceived as a leader

Silas Malafaia, an evangelical pastor and one of Bolsonaro’s most influential allies, echoes the belief that the former president remains a key political figure despite his legal troubles.

“No one is going to take Bolsonaro’s prominence away from him, whether he’s in prison or not,” he said in late August, before preaching in front of a packed church in Rio de Janeiro. “He’s the greatest right-wing leader in Latin America.”

In fact, as a way to show their support, some Bolsonaro’s allies are fighting to push an amnesty bill through Congress that would allow the former leader to avoid time behind bars. Some are even calling for a restoration of his political rights, as he’s been barred from running for office until 2030 as part of a separate process against him.

“We should push for his endgame to grant Bolsonaro amnesty and make him eligible to run as our candidate,” Sen. Ciro Nogueira, a former chief of staff under Bolsonaro, told The Associated Press in a phone interview. “Without him, we won’t win the election. He is the main leader, the guiding figure.”

But in practice, Brazilian right-wing leaders have already started considering a Plan B.

Nogueira leads Progressistas, one of Brazil’s most powerful right-wing parties, and has named Sao Paulo Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas and Parana Gov. Ratinho Junior as potential pro-Bolsonaro presidential candidates, as well as Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son.

Both governors have joined street demonstrations called by Bolsonaro, defending his innocence. But Bolsonaro’s sons, who remain central to his inner circle, do not necessarily trust them.

As the governor of Brazil’s richest and most populous state, de Freitas is a strong contender for the 2026 election. The former Bolsonaro minister and military officer, is widely seen as the right’s favorite candidate.

Private messages released by the Supreme Court in August showed Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the U.S. and has ties to the MAGA movement, privately accusing de Freitas of failing to defend his father in the Supreme Court while quietly preparing his own presidential run.

De Freitas has declined to comment on the accusation, and while he has not admitted he would run for the presidency, he said that if elected in 2026, he would immediately grant amnesty to Bolsonaro.

The governor attended the Independence Day demonstration in Sao Paulo on Sunday. Mimicking the former president’s former speeches, de Freitas called out the justice who oversaw the coup case at the Supreme Court. “Nobody can stand the tyranny of a justice like Moraes anymore,” he said, referring to Alexandre de Moraes.

Following the verdict de Freitas said on X that Bolsonaro and the other officers convicted with him were “victims of an unfair sentence with disproportionate penalties.”

“Stay strong, President. We will remain by your side!” he said.

Brazil may see ‘Bolsonarism 2.0’

Bolsonaro’s conviction could mark a new chapter in Brazilian politics.

Esther Solano, a sociologist at the Federal University of Sao Paulo and who has tracked Bolsonaro voters and evangelicals since 2017, calls it “Bolsonarism 2.0.”

Her surveys show supporters believe Bolsonaro was crucial to launching a conservative crusade, but the movement is now strong enough to outlive him. New figures are emerging, Solano notes, including de Freitas, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, lawmaker Nikolas Ferreira and other evangelical leaders.

“Bolsonarism is moving into a new phase: consolidation, fortification and a new ecosystem of leaders who will rise stronger from Bolsonaro’s downfall,” she said.

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