WASHINGTON — A new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released on Monday indicates that President Donald Trump’s recently signed legislation, referred to as his “big beautiful bill,” is projected to increase the U.S. national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next ten years.
This legislation, which was passed by Republicans along party lines, is also expected to result in an increase of 10 million people being uninsured by 2034, the report highlights.
The budget office conducted an analysis of the bill’s final version, which included several urgent amendments by Republicans to secure the necessary votes in the Senate, where it narrowly passed 51-50. The revised version later received House approval with a 218-214 vote and was signed into law by Trump on July 4.
The 887-page package extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts while providing tax deductions for tips and overtime pay for the next four years. It includes hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending for the military and to carry out Trump’s mass deportation agenda. And it pays for some of that with cuts to Medicaid, SNAP benefits (which help low-income families purchase groceries) and clean energy funding.
The analysis found that the law’s net spending cuts of $1.1 trillion are outstripped by the $4.5 trillion in decreased revenue, compared to if the measure had not passed.
Republican leaders said passing the “big, beautiful bill” was essential to averting a tax hike at the end of this year, when much of Trump’s 2017 tax law was slated to expire.
Recent surveys show the bill is unpopular with Americans. Democrats are leaning heavily into attacks on the bill as a tax cut that disproportionately benefits the wealthy, paid for in part with spending cuts that harm the working class.
Some Republicans and White House allies, meanwhile, are casting the bill as a tax benefit for “working families,” highlighting the move away from taxes on tips and overtime in particular. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted that voters will “reward” Republicans for the bill in the midterm elections.
“This is a bill that was written for hard working Americans, middle and lower class earners in particular, and they will feel the effects of that in the economy, and they’ll have higher wages and more opportunity and more economic growth, and that’s a major factor in a midterm election. And the border will be secure. We’ll have American energy dominance going again,” Johnson told NBC News earlier this month after it passed.
Asked if he has any concerns that it will cost the GOP seats in the 2026 midterm elections, Johnson responded, “No concerns at all. In fact, it’s going to gain seats for us. We’re that confident.”
The CBO also found that the law, which includes changes to the Affordable Care Act, will reduce average premiums for the standard “benchmark” ACA plan by about 0.6% in 2034.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
