Competitive Democratic Landscape in California Governor’s Race Presents Unique GOP Opportunity

LOS ANGELES – Just how many Democrats is too many in the race for California’s governor’s seat? This question looms large as the sheer volume of Democratic contenders has party strategists on edge, fearing an unprecedented electoral upset.

With such a crowded field of Democratic hopefuls, there’s a growing concern that the party’s votes could be so diluted that it might pave a path for two Republicans to emerge victorious from the June primary, advancing to the general election. This scenario, which seemed improbable at first, is now a topic of serious discussion among political insiders.

“It’s the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could this happen?” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell remarked, highlighting the speculation surrounding this unexpected twist in the electoral process.

The uncertainty stems from California’s unique “top two” primary system. Under this structure, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on a single ballot, with only the top two vote-getters moving on to the November election. This is the first gubernatorial race under this system without a clear frontrunner, prompting a “Why not me?” mentality among numerous Democrats eager to seize the opportunity.

Former U.S. Representative Katie Porter’s campaign has sounded the alarm, warning supporters in a recent fundraising plea about the “very real chance” of seeing only Republicans on the ballot come November.

Is California witnessing the making of a political shocker?

Though it remains a distant longshot, it’s hard to understate the political shock that would come with two Republicans perched atop California’s midterm ballot. The state is known as a Democratic fortress, and a GOP candidate hasn’t won a statewide election in two decades. It would also have implications for races down the ballot, including congressional battlegrounds that could determine control of the U.S. House.

Why so many candidates? The governor’s chair in California has always had magnetic allure — it’s one of the most powerful political platforms in the nation. The state — by itself — is ranked as the world’s fourth-largest economy. It’s the nation’s top agricultural producer and is home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The state budget tallies nearly $350 billion in annual spending, an amount roughly equal to the market value of Netflix.

Candidates lured by a wide-open election

With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from seeking a third term, it’s the most wide-open contest for governor in a generation.

Dozens of people have filed paperwork to run, from a college student to a billionaire. Among them are at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising machinery to seriously compete.

That list includes current and former members of Congress — Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; former state controller Betty Yee and schools superintendent Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, a former majority leader in the state Assembly.

With the Democrats occupying much of the same ideological turf, candidates are highlighting other markers to break away from the pack. Swalwell, for example, has campaigned partly on his role as a House manager of Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan, the newest candidate in the race, has been a frequent critic of Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer is among Mahan’s top critics, saying he’s too aligned with tech interests.

Some Democrats hope to see the field narrow on its own.

It would be best for “the lower-tiered people to drop out,” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. “You are looking at people who are never going to break through.”

Uncertainty comes with ‘top two’ primary

Mitchell said he used available polling data to run a series of simulations to assess the likelihood of a twin GOP breakthrough and found it was possible, though with long odds. The leading GOP candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump.

California is one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide, Democrats have held every statewide office since 2010 and Republicans have been reduced to powerless spectators in the Legislature.

In a primary, the Democrats are expected to divide roughly 60% of the vote, Republicans, 40%. The math gets challenging for Democrats if the party has a long list of credible candidates in the race, cutting up their share of the vote.

“It’s a small probability but one that would be a massive, massive deal,” Mitchell said. The quandary for Democrats: “There isn’t somebody who is going to come in and tell these lower-tier candidates they can’t run.”

Republicans, for their part, are also concerned about the tricky math. Hilton has been calling on Bianco to drop out in hopes that Republicans would consolidate to push one candidate into the November election.

“We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent debate.

Democrats in search of a national leader

The race is displaying some similarity with the rapidly developing 2028 Democratic contest for president, where a large field is assembling to contend for an open seat. Democrats are still regrouping from the thrashing the national party suffered in 2024 and candidates in both races are testing messages they hope will galvanize voters in the midterms and beyond.

With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the abundance of candidates is a sign of both energy and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.

The common denominator between the races: “We have to learn how to focus on the game of expansion and strengthening our coalition,” Seawright said.