The repercussions of the government shutdown are about to intensify significantly.

For the past month, the effects of the federal budget deadlock have been somewhat contained. However, as the month draws to a close, a convergence of deadlines affecting various programs threatens to extend the shutdown’s impact far beyond Washington, D.C.

This weekend marks a critical juncture, with consequences set to hit diverse groups including military personnel, individuals relying on ObamaCare, children enrolled in Head Start programs, and low-income families dependent on food stamps.

The ripple effects will touch tens of millions nationwide, putting pressure on every congressional district and amplifying the urgency for Congress to negotiate a resolution to the ongoing stalemate.

Some consequences are already being felt. Last Friday, most federal workers did not receive their full paycheck for the first time during the shutdown, having only received a partial payment two weeks prior. By Tuesday, air traffic controllers, who are required to work as essential employees, faced similar financial shortfalls. This situation forced some to seek additional employment and raised concerns about potential travel disruptions as the holiday season approaches.

Last Friday, most federal employees missed their first full paycheck of the shutdown, after getting only a partial check two weeks earlier. And on Tuesday, air traffic controllers — essential employees who must report to work — followed suit, forcing some to seek second jobs and raising concerns about travel delays heading into the holidays.

The coming days, though, are expected to be even worse. 

The administration shifted funds to pay out October benefits for a federal nutrition program for young mothers and kids, known as WIC. But that emergency funding is set to run out near the end of the month. And a huge fight is brewing over the fate of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food aid to millions of low-income people.

Congress has put more than $5 billion into a contingency fund designed to cover SNAP benefits during emergencies. But the administration says the fund is reserved for unforeseen events like natural disasters. The current shutdown doesn’t qualify, Trump officials charge, because it was caused by Democrats. 

“Contingency funds are not legally available to cover regular benefits,” according to a memo issued last week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees SNAP. 

Democrats have rejected that legal analysis, saying Congress created the contingency fund for emergency situations exactly like the current budget impasse. If the Trump administration refuses to spend the money, they say, it would violate the federal law designed to ensure that appropriated funds go where Congress intended.

“The contingency funding that we set aside for SNAP is not optional spending. It is required by the law,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, told reporters Tuesday in the Capitol. 

“We appropriated that money for this purpose. The White House must spend it,” she added. “And what they are doing right now, blocking these funds from going out, is illegal.” 

On Tuesday, a number of state attorneys general in Democratic states sued the administration to release the funds. But the challenge will take time to move through the courts. Meanwhile, withholding the SNAP funding would affect more than 40 million low-income people, including roughly 16 million kids, 8 million seniors and 1.2 million veterans.

Patients who benefit from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are also soon to experience the impacts of the congressional deadlock. On Nov. 1, the open enrollment period for ObamaCare begins. And if Congress doesn’t act to extend soon-to-expire subsidies adopted during the COVID pandemic, premiums and other costs are expected to skyrocket at the start of next year.

The increase would directly impact more than 20 million ACA enrollees, but the fallout is expected to reverberate far beyond that, as hospitals and other providers scramble to adjust to the expected spike in the number of uninsured patients. 

It’s that looming cost hike that Democrats say must be addressed as a condition of reopening the government. But with Republicans opposed to that stipulation, there’s virtually no chance the issue will be resolved before ACA patients begin perusing their plan options for next year. 

“The time is now that people are looking at [how] their health care costs are going to go up,” Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) said Tuesday.

In Minnesota, she warned, the out-of-pocket increase for a 60-year-old couple will average $15,000 next year.

“People are desperate as they go to renew their health care,” she said. “It’s not in December, it’s not next year, it is Nov. 1 — this Saturday.”

Head Start is another of the major federal programs said to be on the chopping block if the shutdown extends into next month. Roughly 750,000 low income kids currently benefit from the program, which provides child care, early education and some health services to children under the age of six. The National Head Start Association is warning that almost 10 percent of those students will see their schools shuttered on Nov. 1 if Washington policymakers don’t intervene. 

“Some Head Starts are set to run out of money,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said Tuesday. “I’m starting to hear that.” 

And while Trump’s budget team had stepped in to secure payments for the nation’s military personnel when their first check came due on Oct. 15, that $8 billion pool is poised to run dry.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice President Vance in recent days have indicated the troops would be paid at the end of the week — though likely not on Nov. 15 — but the White House hasn’t released any information about where that funding would come from.

Heading into the November storm, both parties are sounding alarm bells about the economic turmoil to come — and blaming the other for the damage. 

Republicans say Democrats won’t support the GOP’s spending bill because they’re under heavy pressure from the left to do battle with President Trump, even if the result is that millions of Americans are hurt financially.

“They simply fear losing their own political positions next November if they don’t appease the angry, far-left base right now,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters Tuesday. “And they will appease that base at any cost, no matter how much pain’s inflicted.” 

Democrats reject those charges, saying it’s Republicans who are threatening the financial security of Americans by refusing to extend the ACA enhanced tax credits. Democrats simply don’t trust Republicans — who have sought to eliminate ObamaCare for more than a decade — to address the issue before January if it’s not done now.

“We can resolve this crisis pretty simply. We could reopen the government and not allow people’s health care premiums to double or triple,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said Tuesday. That’s it. That’s all they have to do.”

The finger pointing has left many questioning whether even the confluence of factors would be enough to force leaders to the negotiating table.

A wildcard in the debate remains Trump himself. While the president met with leaders in both parties on Sept. 29, two days before the shutdown began, he’s been on the sidelines ever since, focused on foreign affairs and refusing to negotiate with Democrats until they help to reopen the government.

This week Trump was in Asia, meeting with a number of foreign leaders, and isn’t scheduled to return to Washington until just before the start of November.

Democrats say that passive approach is a mistake, because Trump’s influence over Republicans will be needed to secure any agreement. 

“I wish the president would return from Asia and get everybody in a room,” Dingell said.