ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – Every spring, right on schedule, Carla Johnson sends out letters seeking contributions for the annual Independence Day fireworks display, which attracts tens of thousands to New Mexico’s largest lake.

She’s not hesitant to give gentle nudges when she encounters supporters around town. There’s no room for timidity in fundraising, as the donations collected by the Friends of Elephant Butte Lake State Park are essential to continue this beloved tradition.

But even Johnson’s ardent efforts as the group’s fundraiser might not cut it next year if the U.S. and China remain locked in a trade war.

With the majority of fireworks such as aerial shells, paper rockets, and glittering fountains that ignite America’s Fourth of July festivities being sourced from China, volunteer groups like Johnson’s, along with both large and small cities, are watching the negotiations with keen interest.

A 90-day pause on what had been massive tariffs brought some temporary relief, but industry experts acknowledge that the tiff has lit a fuse of uncertainty as the price tag for future fireworks displays could skyrocket if an agreement isn’t reached.

Not the first time

There were similar concerns in 2019 as trade talks between the U.S. and China dragged on. Industry groups had called on officials then to exempt fireworks from escalating tariffs.

The American Pyrotechnics Association and the National Fireworks Association reignited the lobbying effort this spring, noting in letters to President Donald Trump that fireworks play a crucial role in American celebrations. The groups say the industry is made up mostly of family-owned companies that are often locked into long-term contracts that leave them unable to raise prices to offset cost surges brought on by higher tariffs.

And there are few options for sourcing the more than 300 million pounds (136 million kilograms) of fireworks needed to feed demands. China produces 99% of consumer fireworks and 90% of professional display fireworks used in the U.S., according to the APA.

“I think overall it’s the uncertainty,” said Julie Heckman, the APA’s executive director. “Yeah, we have a 90-day pause, but are the negotiations with China going to go well? Or is it going to go sky-high again? You know, triple digits. It’s very hard for a small business to plan.”

How it began

Fireworks have their roots in China. To ward off evil spirits, people would throw bamboo stalks into a fire, causing them to pop as the air inside the hollow pockets heated up. These early firecrackers evolved into more sophisticated fireworks after the Chinese developed gunpowder in the 9th century.

By the 15th century, Europe was using fireworks for religious festivals and entertainment. In 1777, they were used in Philadelphia and Boston for what were the first organized Independence Day celebrations.

Now, fireworks are synonymous with the summer holiday and with ringing in the new year. Shows have become elaborately choreographed displays that are often synced to live music. In Nashville, the Music City’s award-winning symphony orchestra puts its own spin on the festivities.

In New York City, organizers of the Macy’s show will fire off 80,000 shells, with some reaching heights of 1,000 feet (304 meters). The National Park Service promises a spectacular show on the National Mall in Washington, D.C.

At Elephant Butte in southern New Mexico, they’re going old school and will light the fireworks by hand. Charlie Warren, vice president of the Friends of Elephant Butte Lake State Park, said it’s like spectators are getting two shows at once as the colors reflect on the water below and the loud booms reverberate off the lake.

Johnson, who also serves as the group’s treasurer, gets emotional describing the experience.

“Oh man, in my heart and sometimes out loud, I’m singing the Star-Spangled Banner. I’ll sing it out loud to the top of my lungs when I watch that show,” she said. “It makes you proud to be in this country, and we’re celebrating our freedom, and I’m going to start crying now. Don’t get me started.”

Stocking up before the tariffs

Organizers in Nashville ordered fireworks for that show over a year ago so they weren’t affected by the tariffs. It was the same in one of New Mexico’s largest cities, where Rio Rancho officials planned to spend a little more to go bigger and higher this year.

In Oklahoma, Big Blast Fireworks supplies nonprofit groups so they can fundraise by setting up fireworks stands. The company received its first container from China in January before the tariffs hit. The second container arrived in February and was subject to a 10% tariff. The third container was put on hold to avoid the highest tariffs, meaning inventory could be tight later this year if nothing changes.

“As a small business, we are passionate about watching our price points and intentional about passing along as much savings on to customers as possible,” said Melissa Torkleson, a managing partner at Big Blast.

With some orders on hold, industry experts say Chinese manufacturers throttled back production as warehouses filled up. The backup in the supply chain also has resulted in competition for shipping space aboard ocean vessels, and Heckman, the APA’s director, said it will take much more than flipping a light switch to ease either situation.

If the trade war drags on, she said, there are ways that show organizers can adjust and spectators might not notice. A minute or two could be shaved from a show or certain types of fireworks could be substituted with less expensive options.

As for this year, Warren said the price tag for the Elephant Butte show was unchanged and he and Johnson can’t wait to see spectators lining the shoreline, on the surrounding hillsides and on boats bobbing on the lake. The mission every year is to make sure “that the T’s are all crossed,” Warren said.

“Because this community would not be happy if this show didn’t come off,” he said.