The regional view of Iranian influence already played out in miniature in Lebanon.

Although Lebanese leaders have continually spoken against Israel while supporting the Palestinian cause, many in Lebanon—apart from the Shiite community backing the group—quietly welcomed Israel’s severe dismantling of Iran’s presence there.

Hezbollah, a militant organization partly founded and well-funded by Iran, has not made any public declarations about joining the recent flare-up between Israel and Iran. In a statement on Sunday night, Hezbollah lauded Iran for its bravery and steadfastness, yet subtly indicated that Iran might need to manage this conflict independently.

“[Iran is] capable of confronting this aggression and delivering a bitter defeat to the American and Zionist enemy,” the statement read.

Throughout the last year, Iran has observed as Israel dismantled Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Lebanon, eliminating much of its leadership, obliterating its meticulously constructed military infrastructure, and resulting in the deaths of thousands of Lebanese civilians.

Hezbollah “very much feel that they paid an extremely high price in the last round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel,” Maksad said. “Iran was nowhere to be seen. So there’s this very strong sentiment, including among Lebanese Shia, that Iran abandoned them at their time of need.”

Syria’s new leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa ousted the Iran-backed Assad regime last year and has since made public entreaties to the Trump administration and even signalled a willingness to ease tensions with Israel.

The main concern for Arab leaders in the short term is that Iran could decide to retaliate against them or the huge American military installations they host.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, who helped coordinate Iran and Gulf affairs at Israel’s National Security Council, said he expects Iran to execute a “face-saving” response similar to its retaliation after the Trump administration assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani, in 2020.