BAGHDAD – Iraq’s prime minister has managed to keep his nation neutral as military conflicts erupted in nearby regions for nearly two years. This diplomatic feat involved maintaining a delicate balance between Iraq’s relations with two key, yet adversarial, influences on his power: the U.S. and Iran.
The challenge intensified last month with the outbreak of warfare between Israel, an ally of the U.S., and Iran, alongside U.S. actions targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani asserted that he employed a combination of political and military strategies to prevent Iran-affiliated armed groups from engaging in the conflict.
In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, Al-Sudani shared the details of how he achieved this control, his plans to continue restraining these groups, and — while pursuing a second term — his intention to strengthen ties with the Trump administration, all while maintaining robust connections with Iran-backed political factions that were instrumental in securing his rise to power in 2022.
Staying on the sidelines as Israel and Iran traded blows
After Israel launched airstrikes on Iran and it responded by firing missiles at Tel Aviv, armed groups in Iraq attempted to launch missiles and drones toward Israel and at bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops, al-Sudani said. But they were thwarted 29 times by Iraqi government “security operations” that he did not detail.
“We know that the (Israeli) government had a policy — and still does — of expanding the war in the region,” al-Sudani said. “Therefore, we made sure not to give any justification to any party to target Iraq.”
Al-Sudani said his government also reached out to leaders in Iran “to urge them toward calm and to make room for dialogue and a return to negotiations.”
The future of the US presence in Iraq is in flux
The U.S. and Iraq last year announced an agreement to wrap up the mission of an American-led coalition in Iraq fighting the Islamic State — and in March al-Sudani announced that the head of IS in Iraq and Syria had been killed in a joint Iraqi-U.S. operation. The first phase of the coalition’s drawdown was supposed to be completed by September 2025, but there has been little sign of it happening.
Al-Sudani said the U.S. and Iraq will meet by the end of the year to “arrange the bilateral security relationship” between the two countries. He also hopes to secure U.S. economic investment — in oil and gas, and also artificial intelligence — which he said would contribute to regional security and make ”the two countries great together.”
A variety of militias sprung up in Iraq in the years after the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled former autocratic leader Saddam Hussein. And since the war between Israel and Hamas began in October 2023, sparking regionwide conflicts, an array of pro-Iran armed factions have periodically launched strikes on bases housing U.S. troops.
Al-Sudani said the presence of the coalition forces had provided a “justification” for Iraqi groups to arm themselves, but that once the coalition withdrawal is complete, “there will be no need or no justification for any group to carry weapons outside the scope of the state.”
The fate of Iran-backed militias in Iraq is unclear
One of the most complicated issues for al-Sudani is how to handle the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of mostly Shiite, Iran-backed militias that formed to fight IS. This coalition was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016, although in practice it still operates with significant autonomy.
The Iraqi parliament is discussing legislation that would solidify the relationship between the military and the PMF, drawing objections from Washington. The State Department said in a statement last week that the legislation “would institutionalize Iranian influence and armed terrorist groups undermining Iraq’s sovereignty.”
Al-Sudani defended the proposed legislation, saying it’s part of an effort to ensure that arms are controlled by the state. “Security agencies must operate under laws and be subject to them and be held accountable,” he said.
Indications of weak state authority
In recent weeks, a series of drone attacks have targeted oil facilities in northern Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region.
Kurdish regional authorities accused groups in the PMF of carrying out the attacks. Authorities in Baghdad disputed this, but haven’t assigned blame. Al-Sudani called the attacks a “terrorist act” and said his government is working with Kurdish authorities and coalition forces to identify those responsible and hold them accountable.
Just as the drone attacks have called into question Baghdad’s control over armed groups, so has the case of Israeli-Russian researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who went missing in Iraq in 2023.
Her family believes she is being held by the Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah, and there have reportedly been U.S.-mediated negotiations to negotiate her release.
Al-Sudani did not name the group responsible for Tsurkov’s kidnapping, but he pushed back against the idea that his government has not made serious efforts to free her. He said his government has a team dedicated to finding her.
“We do not negotiate with gangs and kidnappers,” he said, but the team has been in discussions with political factions that might be able to help locate her.
Rebuilding relations with Damascus
Relations between Iraq and the new government in Syria have been tenuous since the fall of former President Bashar Assad in December, after a lightning offensive led by Sunni Islamist insurgents.
Syria’s interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa was formerly known by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani. He once joined the ranks of al-Qaida insurgents battling U.S. forces in Iraq after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Al-Sharaa still faces a warrant for his arrest on terrorism charges in Iraq.
Al-Sharaa has since broken with al-Qaida and has fought against the Islamic State. Al-Sudani said his government is coordinating with the new Syrian government, particularly on security matters.
“We and the administration in Syria certainly have a common enemy, ISIS, which is clearly and openly present inside Syria,” he said.
Al-Sudani said his government has warned the Syrians against the mistakes that occurred in Iraq after Saddam’s fall, when the ensuing security vacuum spawned years of sectarian violence and the rise of armed extremist groups. In recent weeks, sectarian violence in Syria has shaken the country’s fragile postwar recovery.
Al-Sudani called for Syria’s current leadership to pursue a “comprehensive political process that includes all components and communities.”
“We do not want Syria to be divided,” he said. “This is unacceptable and we certainly do not want any foreign presence on Syrian soil,” apparently alluding to Israel’s incursions into southern Syria.
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