(NewsNation) — In September, U.S. employers reported a decrease in job cuts, yet recruitment plans have hit their lowest since 2009, indicating unease in the job market, as revealed by a report on Thursday.
Organizations announced 54,064 job cuts in the last month, a drop of 37% from August and 26% less compared to the same period last year, noted the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. It marked just the third instance this year where cuts were fewer than the corresponding month the previous year.
Still, employers have announced 946,426 job reductions so far this year — the highest since 2020, when more than 2 million cuts were announced.
“Periods with similar job cut levels have occurred typically during economic downturns or, as seen in 2005 and 2006, during the initial automation wave affecting manufacturing and technology jobs,” said Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President and labor specialist at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in the report.
The hiring landscape looks grim. Employers have projected adding about 205,000 positions in the first nine months of the year — a 58% decrease from the same timeframe in 2024, and the lowest figure recorded since 2009.
The latest figures highlight what analysts call a “no-hire, no-fire” labor market: limited opportunities but so far, relatively few layoffs.
Challenger’s findings arrive as official government data remains stalled owing to the federal shutdown. As of Thursday afternoon, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report won’t be published as planned on Friday.
This government report is respected as the primary source for labor market insights, leaving economists and policymakers dependent on alternative data streams to assess the economy.
“Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology, ” Challenger said. “With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring.”
A separate report this week from payroll-processing firm ADP showed the U.S. shed 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. Even more concerning, its August estimate was revised down from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000.
“This month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
The ADP report can differ significantly from the government’s figures, so economists often take it with a grain of salt.
Still, the weak private jobs data has traders more confident the Federal Reserve will continue to slash interest rates, pricing in a 98% chance of a quarter-point reduction later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Fed lowered rates in September for the first time this year to bolster the labor market, even as inflation remains above its 2% target.
The Consumer Price Index for September is scheduled for release Oct. 15, but depending on when the shutdown ends, that, too, could be delayed.
