ANTALYA – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with his NATO colleagues, gather in Turkey on Thursday to strategize for an upcoming crucial summit of alliance leaders next month. This event is seen as a step towards shaping the future of European security amidst America’s shifting focus to other global challenges.

Taking place in the Mediterranean city of Antalya, the meeting is part of ongoing efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. These discussions, which include meetings in Istanbul, are attended by Rubio and President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff. Both are involved following their participation in Trump’s visit to Gulf Arab nations.

Alongside the NATO conference, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio on Wednesday. Rubio is also conducting individual discussions with Johann Wadephul, the new German Foreign Minister, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, as Turkey is playing a key role in facilitating a resolution to the conflict that has persisted for more than three years.

Sybiha and Fidan on Wednesday discussed efforts to establish a ceasefire and steps toward securing a lasting peace with Russia, according to the Turkish foreign ministry.

Talks on Ukraine also in Turkey

The same day that NATO foreign ministers gather, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. It’s an open question whether Trump or Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate Thursday.

Trump teased a possible visit to Istanbul while flying from Saudi Arabia to Qatar on Wednesday, but there was no immediate indication that his travel plans would change.

“He’d like me to be there, and that’s a possibility,” Trump said, referring to Putin. “I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out.”

Zelenskyy has been pushing for direct talks with Russia but only if Putin attends. Putin, who has rebuffed previous such calls, has been coy and has not committed to a meeting.

The Kremlin on Wednesday said Putin’s aide, Vladimir Medinsky, will head the Russian delegation, which also will include Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and Igor Kostyukov, chief of the General Staff’s main directorate. The list did not include Putin himself.

Zelenskyy also remains keen on Ukraine joining NATO, which Russia has adamantly rejected and Trump appears to have agreed with. So even with a Ukrainian presence in Antalya, it appeared unlikely there would be any decisions made about Ukraine’s future, or lack thereof, in the military alliance.

Trump administration pushes for NATO members to spend more on defense

Of greater concern to the U.S. is money, with the Trump administration saying it wants to hear how European members of NATO and Canada plan to boost their national defense investments to 5% of gross domestic product.

In 2023, as Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine entered its second year, NATO leaders agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on national defense budgets. So far, 22 of the 32 member countries have done so.

The leaders will set a new goal at a summit in The Hague on June 25. Trump insists that U.S. allies should commit to spending at least 5% to be ready to defend themselves, but that would require investment at an unprecedented scale.

Trump has cast doubt over whether the U.S. would defend allies that spend too little. The U.S. was projected to have spent 3.38% last year, NATO figures show, the only ally whose spending has dropped over the last decade. Asked last month whether the U.S. would match the 5% target, Rubio said, “Sure. We’re heading there now.”

“Make no mistake, this ministerial is going to be different,” U.S. envoy to NATO Matthew Whitaker said this week, adding that “5% is not just a number, it is a necessity for our security. The alliance is facing significant threats.”

He did not outline those threats. NATO leaders insisted at their summit last year that “Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security,” but some countries are uneasy about Trump reengaging with Putin.

Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister who is hosting the meeting, is expected to express Turkey’s commitment to strengthening NATO and call for the inclusion of NATO allies that aren’t European Union members — such as Turkey — into European security and defense initiatives, according to Turkish officials.

Fidan also would advocate a comprehensive, “360-degree security” approach focusing not only on ending the Russia-Ukraine war but also on stability in the Middle East and regions adjacent to NATO members, the officials said.

The plan on higher defense spending

Meanwhile, the defense spending plan under consideration appears to be for all allies to aim for 3.5% of GDP on “hard military spending by 2032,” and an extra “1.5% related spending (on) infrastructure, cybersecurity and things like that. Also achievable by 2032,” according to the Dutch government.

While the two figures add up to 5%, factoring in infrastructure and cybersecurity would change the basis on which NATO traditionally calculates defense spending. The seven-year time frame is also short by the alliance’s usual standards.

Whitaker, the U.S. NATO ambassador, appeared this week to confirm the plan, saying it “also includes things like mobility, necessary infrastructure, cybersecurity. It is definitely more than just missiles, tanks and howitzers.”

It’s difficult to see how many allies might reach even 3.5% of GDP. The meeting in Turkey may provide more clarity.

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Cook reported from Brussels, and Fraser from Ankara, Turkey.