DUBAI – On Tuesday, activists reported that Iran’s aggressive response to widespread protests has resulted in the deaths of at least 6,126 individuals. Concerns persist that the actual number of casualties may be higher. This development coincides with the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier group in the Middle East, poised to lead any potential American military intervention in response to the escalating crisis.
The deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln, along with its accompanying guided missile destroyers, enhances the United States’ capability to launch strikes against Iran. This comes amid signals from Gulf Arab nations indicating their desire to avoid direct involvement in any potential conflict, despite hosting U.S. military forces on their soil.
Meanwhile, two Iranian-backed militias in the region have expressed their readiness to carry out new attacks, likely in support of Iran. This follows threats from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding military action in response to the killing of peaceful protesters or potential mass executions by Tehran following the unrest.
Iran, on its part, has repeatedly warned of the possibility of dragging the entire Middle East into a conflict. However, the country’s air defenses and military infrastructure remain weakened after an Israeli-led offensive in June.
During Israel’s 12-day offensive on Iran, both the Houthis and Kataib Hezbollah refrained from engaging, highlighting the current state of disorganization within Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” This hesitancy is partly attributed to the aftermath of Israeli strikes during its conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Activists have now released an updated death toll, shedding light on the devastating impact of the ongoing crackdown in Iran.
The new figures Tuesday came from the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in multiple rounds of unrest in Iran. The group verifies each death with a network of activists on the ground in Iran.
It identified the dead as including at least 5,777 protesters, 214 government-affiliated forces, 86 children and 49 civilians who weren’t demonstrating. The crackdown has seen over 41,800 arrests, it added.
The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll given authorities cutting off the internet and disrupting calls into the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s government has put the death toll at a far lower 3,117, saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces, and labeled the rest “terrorists.” In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.
That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest there in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The protests in Iran began on Dec. 28, sparked by the fall of the Iranian currency, the rial, and quickly spread across the country. They were met by a violent crackdown by Iran’s theocracy, the scale of which is only starting to become clear as the country has faced more than two weeks of internet blackout — the most comprehensive in its history.
Iran’s U.N. ambassador told a U.N. Security Council meeting late Monday that Trump’s repeated threats to use military force against the country “are neither ambiguous nor misinterpreted.” Amir Saeid Iravani also repeated allegations that the U.S. leader incited violence by “armed terrorist groups” supported by the United States and Israel, but gave no evidence to support his claims.
Iranian state media has tried to accuse forces abroad for the protests as the theocracy remains broadly unable to address the country’s ailing economy, which is still squeezed by international sanctions, particularly over its nuclear program.
Some Iranian-backed militias suggest willingness to fight
Iran projected its power across the Mideast through the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of proxy militant groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, and other places. It was also seen as a defensive buffer, intended to keep conflict away from Iranian borders. But it has collapsed after Israel targeted Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and others during the Gaza war. Meanwhile, rebels in 2024 overthrew Syria’s Bashar Assad after a yearslong, bloody war in which Iran backed his rule.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have repeatedly warned they could resume fire if needed on shipping in the Red Sea, releasing old footage of a previous attack Monday. Ahmad “Abu Hussein” al-Hamidawi, the leader of Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia, warned “the enemies that the war on the (Islamic) Republic will not be a picnic; rather, you will taste the bitterest forms of death, and nothing will remain of you in our region.”
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, one of Iran’s staunchest allies, refused to say how it planned to react in the case of a possible attack.
“During the past two months, several parties have asked me a clear and frank question: If Israel and America go to war against Iran, will Hezbollah intervene or not?” Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Kassem said in a video address.
He said the group is preparing for “possible aggression and is determined to defend” against it. But as to how it would act, he said, “these details will be determined by the battle and we will determine them according to the interests that are present.”
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Associated Press writers Edith Lederer at the United Nations and Abby Sewell in Beirut contributed to this report.
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