Parents have been driven to commence their back-to-school shopping earlier than usual, spurred by anxiety over tariffs and increasing prices, leading to an unprecedented surge in these purchases during July.
Surveys indicate that most parents anticipate a rise in back-to-school expenses this year, with approximately half attributing this increase to President Trump’s trade conflicts.
A survey conducted by the National Retail Foundation (NRF) revealed that 67 percent of back-to-school shoppers had already started their purchases before mid-July, a significant increase from 55 percent the previous year, marking the highest level since the NRF began tracking this data in 2018.
Fifty-one percent of those shoppers specifically cited concerns of increases in prices from tariffs as their reason for going early.
“Consumers are trying to navigate a landscape of uncertainty right now,” explained Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at NRF. She noted that people are uncertain about future pricing and are responding by buying early, securing what they need now at known prices to circumvent potential price hikes later in the year.
A separate survey by U.S. News showed that 85 percent of shoppers associated tariffs with rising back-to-school shopping costs.
Trump’s trade policies have been a whirlwind for even experts in the field, let alone parents.
The president has announced various trade agreements with countries like Japan and the United Kingdom, involving tariffs of 15 percent and 10 percent respectively, and has also introduced “reciprocal” tariffs on numerous other countries, set to begin on Thursday.
While parents are looking to cut back on costs, many school supplies such as clothes and shoes are essential, and materials including pencils and notebooks are hard to buy second hand.
“Parents are going into the school year, and their kids have grown out of their sneakers, they’re going to figure out how to buy a pair of sneakers for school. So, maybe we’re going to see families dial back a little bit on the kind or quality of the items that they’re purchasing, but I think it’s also very likely that we see families dealing with these expenses by loading up on debt,” said Julie Margetta Morgan, president of the Century Foundation, a progressive think thank, pointing to credit cards or “buy now, pay later” options.
And as the trade wars drag on, inflation has been going up, rising by 2.7 percent in June, while the Federal Reserve’s target for inflation is 2 percent.
The Fed’s July beige book found tariffs increased costs in all of the Fed’s 12 regional districts, which then translated to higher costs for consumers.
And the increased costs come as the number of people needing extra assistance with back-to-school costs appears to be going up.
Dale Bannon, the national community relations and development secretary of the Salvation Army, said the “need is higher” this year, especially for “basic needs.”
“Many of the families we serve live paycheck to paycheck, and so, if there’s any kind of increase in price” it can have devastating effects them, Bannon said.
“We just partnered with Toyota, for example, where through their partnership, we are doubling the number of backpacks we’re distributing through a unique partnership with their dealers,” Bannon said, adding 17,000 backpacks full of essential supplies will be given to parents.
The president has doubled down on his tariff strategy, pronouncing the deals he will make with other countries will benefit the U.S. in the long term.
“And we have to solve our trade deficit with China. … Hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose with China. And unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal,” Trump said when he began the trade wars back in the spring. “This is not sustainable.”
Many businesses also attempted to buy earlier in the spring so some of their products weren’t hit by tariffs, but not all purchases can be made ahead of time.
While prices are slowly going up now, experts predict the brunt of these policies will impact families further in the school year and around holiday season.
“It accelerated the shipping season, so it brought it forward, and also brought forward the shopping season, so people did their purchases earlier,” said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association.
“They might have been much more willing to go out and purchase now, knowing that the tariffs will really begin to accelerate.” Lamar said, adding the tariff “uncertainty is having a chilling effect on sourcing, on investments, on hiring throughout the economy” and “also has a chilling effect on consumer behavior.”
