In the often sensational world of television, dramatic hostage scenarios frequently grip audiences, yet experts assert that real-life ransom kidnappings are notably rare. The recent case involving Savannah Guthrie, a host from the “Today” show, and her mother’s apparent abduction has thrust the spotlight onto how law enforcement navigates these tense situations and the potential impact of media coverage on the victims’ safety.

The incident unfolded when Nancy Guthrie, aged 84, was reportedly taken from her residence near Tucson, Arizona. Shortly afterward, a local TV station received two messages seemingly linked to her disappearance. One of these demanded a ransom for her safe return, citing details such as an Apple Watch and floodlights on her property, adding a layer of complexity and urgency to the case.

Despite these developments, law enforcement has yet to identify a suspect or confirm the legitimacy of the ransom note. Meanwhile, Guthrie’s family has taken to releasing heartfelt video pleas, appealing to those holding their mother and desperately seeking evidence that she remains unharmed.

Experts in hostage negotiation emphasize that reality often diverges from TV portrayals, where confrontations are loud and intense. Instead, real-world negotiations require a nuanced approach, where communication is key and patience is a virtue.

Scott Tillema, a former SWAT hostage negotiator from Illinois, highlights that abductions for ransom are the least common type of hostage situation in the United States. This rarity underscores the unique challenges faced by authorities and families when such cases do arise.

There are three types of hostage situations, according to Scott Tillema, a retired SWAT hostage negotiator in Illinois. The least common kind in the U.S., he said, are ones that involve kidnapping for ransom.

For this category, the abduction is intentionally used as leverage to achieve an outcome, like financial compensation, publicity or political changes, said Tillema, who declined to speak about the apparent Guthrie kidnapping specifically.

Scott Walker, author of “Order Out of Chaos: A Kidnap Negotiator’s Guide to Influence and Persuasion,” has dealt with hundreds of abduction cases in his decades-long career. Most of them involved international actors, but he said that regardless of location, most scenarios follow a similar sequence of events.

Typically the kidnappers will plan well ahead of the abduction — sourcing a clandestine location to hold the hostage and designating a specific person to communicate with authorities and the victim’s relatives.

The first step for law enforcement is confirming proof of life, Walker said. From there, authorities and the victim’s family will try to establish trust with the abductors to facilitate an exchange.

Walker didn’t speculate on Guthrie’s specific case. Broadly speaking, he said the victims of abductions that come with demands are not chosen at random.

“It’s very, very rare that someone is kidnapped for being in the wrong place at the wrong time,” Walker said.

One of the most notable historical examples that falls into this category is the 1963 kidnapping of Frank Sinatra Jr., where the FBI helped Sinatra’s parents pay his kidnappers $240,000 for the 19-year-old’s freedom. All three kidnappers were eventually convicted.

Arizona law enforcement has said it’s not clear that Guthrie was targeted, and if she was, investigators don’t know why.

Involvement of the family

Movies that depict hostage crises often gloss over how much time is involved, Walker said. Communication is often interrupted by long stretches of silence.

“There’s a lot more waiting going on in real life: Waiting for the phone to ring, waiting for the kidnappers to get in touch,” Walker said.

The Guthrie family appealed to potential kidnappers in two videos after the Tucson-based KOLD-TV says it received an email Monday night that appears to be a ransom note. The note included a demand for money by 5 p.m. Thursday and a second deadline for next Monday, investigators said.

The station received a second email Friday afternoon, but said, “We cannot share contents of the new message right now,” in a statement online.

Often silence is a strategy to put pressure on the family, Walker said. As a result, one of the most important assets for professional negotiators and family members alike is patience.

“We’re likely to make better decisions when we’re in a more positive, balanced, regulated frame of mind,” he said.

That’s easier said than done, according to Calvin Chrustie, a senior partner at the private security firm Critical Risk Team, which primarily handles kidnappings, blackmail and extortions in the U.S.

“I just think the public underestimates the huge psychological stressors on both the family and the police in these particular situations,” Chrustie said. He added that the national media’s insatiable demand for more information throughout an investigation only gives kidnappers more leverage and interferes with law enforcement operations — further endangering the victim.

Chrustie said in general he would suspect ransom notes sent to the press were possibly an attempt “to increase leverage” for kidnappers or “to mislead” law enforcement.

Other types of negotiations

There are two other types of hostage situations that are far more common in the U.S., according to Tillema.

The first is called “expressive hostage taking” and describes a situation when an individual takes a hostage in a moment of acute, intense emotional distress, Tillema said. Typically, these crises happen at home among family members when someone in a psychological crisis wants to compel law enforcement to leave.

The vast majority of mediations he brokered in his roughly two decades as a negotiator fell into that category, he said.

The second-most common is called “incidental hostage taking,” which is defined as a situation when a hostage is taken during another crime, like a bank robbery. In these cases, frequently sensationalized in movies like Spike Lee’s “Inside Man,” a person is usually confronted by law enforcement and then uses a hostage as leverage to negotiate freedom. Tillema said those situations are typically disorganized because the abduction is not premeditated.